Easing rents in the Sunbelt could boost migration to the region, leading to positive net absorption and reduce vacancy in the multifamily markets there, according to Marcus & Millichap’s 2025 national investment forecast.

The report found two-thirds of the 21 major metros in the region had an average effective rent below the national median of $1,830 a month, yielding a useful cost-of-living advantage. “All but six are projected to register vacancy compression ranging from 10 to 50 basis points this year,” it noted.

Indeed, over the next five years people moving to the major Sunbelt metros outside of California could drive multifamily vacancy rates down to or below historic averages, especially because fewer apartments are being built, the report predicted. “Upward vacancy momentum in the multifamily sector may have crested,” it noted. Phoenix and Las Vegas are expected to lead the region in growth, followed by Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Orlando, Atlanta, Austin and Tampa-St. Petersburg. All those markets entered 2025 with vacancy rates 70-200 basis points above their long-term average, except for Houston.