CHICAGO—Amazon has narrowed its search for a second headquarters site to a small group of cities and regions. Most experts believe the internet behemoth will choose to copy what it has done in Seattle. Namely, establish an office campus within a strong and vibrant urban core, just the type of area many of its employees now prefer to live.
But the company also wants this future campus to serve its needs for decades to come. And what happens when all those employees start to form families and move into middle age? Those considerations are one reason commercial real estate experts say Amazon is doing more than just evaluating the various downtowns still in the running.
“They are definitely taking into account not just the core areas, but their proximity to where people will want to live in the future,” Emily Line, vice president of commercial services for Chicago-based Realtors Property Resource, tells GlobeSt.com. And to Line, that means the suburbs. Specifically, suburbs which provide both an easy commute to Amazon's future HQ2, and an upscale lifestyle familiar to now-urban millennials. “That will play a huge role in how Amazon looks at this.”
Line's platform, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the National Association of REALTORS, developed a set of statistics on a group of suburbs adjacent to the cities still under consideration. Dublin, OH, for example, is only 24 minutes from the proposed Amazon HQ2 site in downtown Columbus. The average household income is $151,135, and many among the well-educated population already commute to jobs throughout the metro area.
Furthermore, as reported in GlobeSt.com, Dublin has decided to rid itself of the sprawling office parks and strip malls that characterize many suburbs. The town of 44,753 has completed or launched $500 million of capital improvements, all aimed at creating both a lively downtown and a new type of neighborhood—a mixed-use, walkable community with a variety of housing options for retiring baby-boomers, millennials and childless households.
Line says that for millennials, this transformation will mean they can have that Amazon career downtown, “but also have a place to raise a family. You have the best of both worlds.”
Other suburbs analyzed by Line's platform also boost their respective cities' chances of landing Amazon. Residents of Sandy Springs, GA, can reach Atlanta's proposed HQ2 site in just 30 minutes. The town of 101,799 has an average household income $119,944, and a large group of “well-educated young workers, some of whom are still completing their education, are employed in professional/technical occupations, as well as sales and office/administrative support roles. This market ranks in the top five for renters, movers, college enrollment and labor-force participation rate.”
Naperville, IL, may be the best example of a Chicago suburb that Amazon will consider. Realtors Property Resource estimates the city of 144,600 has an average household income of $140,256. And it identifies the dominant population segment as well-educated career professionals who have prospered through the Great Recession. These goal-oriented couples comprise 31.9% of households, and to maintain their upscale suburban lifestyles, often commute far and work long hours. “So far, these established families, highly qualified in the science, technology, law or finance fields, have accumulated an average of $1.5 million in net worth.”
Suburbs like these will be the home of Amazon employees in the near future. But “this is much bigger than Amazon,” Line adds. She points out that millennials will make up 75% of the workforce by 2030, and even though many want an urban lifestyle, a group that size will still contain a huge group that eventually chooses to live in the suburbs. That means even cities and states no longer in the running should give a lot of thought to their suburbs.
In effect, the competition for HQ2 is “a reminder to all communities, large and small, to make sure their areas are livable.”
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Brian J. Rogal
Brian J. Rogal is a Chicago-based freelance writer with years of experience as an investigative reporter and editor, most notably at The Chicago Reporter, where he concentrated on housing issues. He also has written extensively on alternative energy and the payments card industry for national trade publications.
