SAN DIEGO—There's about a 75% chance that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will emerge from conservatorship before the end of President Trump's current term in office, speakers told attendees during the special session, “The Future of CREF: Disruptors & Demographics” at MBA's CREF/Multifamily Housing Convention & Expo 2017 here Tuesday. Panelists discussed a variety of industry disruptors including technology and regulation, along with demographic trends that would affect the market.

Michael Berman, principal of Michael Berman Consulting LLC, said getting the GSEs out of conservatorship is a priority, according to the Trump administration. Because Trump comes from real estate, he said, we are likely to see legislation emerging from the Senate, particularly from Mike Crapo, who co-wrote the Johnson-Crapo GSE-reform bill. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has also addressed the matter of the GSEs, saying that while GSE reform is not a priority for its first 100 days, the Trump administration would likely move relatively fast to get it done. He added that we will probably see legislation by 2018 and that the role of private capital is key in this important debate.

Brian Stoffers, global president of debt structured finance for CBRE Capital Markets, said healthcare, PACs and foreign trade will be dealt with first, but “we will see action quicker than we would have seen it with another administration.” He predicted that Senator Elizabeth Warren will delay reform.