Within the industrial realm, cost savings from autonomous vehicles will be realized in the fact that, with driver-assisted trucks, truck drivers will be able to go long distances; trucking is a big component of industrial costs. “Distribution costs should become more efficient,” says Miller. “In the short run, three to five years, trucking companies that implemented such systems—if they could get approval for long-distance driving—will make more money. Conversely, in 10 years, the cost of shipping things should come down, making Amazon more competitive.”

In terms of office, there should be some benefit since developers don't need to build as much parking, says Miller. “But when you build an office building, above-ground parking is built on a slant—that will change with autonomous vehicles. In the future, we will build garages with floor-to-ceiling flat floors and ramps at the edges of giant floorplates that go up and down. The building will be more productive by converting two or three stories of that space to office or residential space rather than parking.”

Nobody's exactly sure how autonomous vehicles will affect leasing “Looking at it by sector, the big question is when we move to more autonomous vehicles will we also move to a model where fewer people own cars?” says Miller. “If fewer people own cars, will you be renting Uber or Lift-type cars? If that happens, you don't need to build garages as much. And what about existing infrastructure like gas stations and driveways? Will these become shared parking spaces? There will likely be a whole lot more sharing.”

It's also hard to say how investment will be affected by autonomous vehicles, “but you don't want properties that are obsolete,” says Miller. “Autonomous vehicles mean certain property types are not going to fare well, like big boxes. Traffic will not always be less. Cars will all be electric eventually, so emissions will not be great. I predict a carbon tax on non-efficient cars. The market will eventually demand cleaner air. Fossil fuels will not be competitive with batteries in electric cars, so there won't be as much of an environmental concern.”

Miller adds that infrastructure design will also need to adapt. “We will probably have to redesign roads around office buildings and convention centers—they will need drop-off lanes. Roads will have to be redesigned with more drop-off lanes on the fringes. It's hard to change, but maybe we'll do it by stacking.”

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SAN DIEGO—Parking garages and roads may change to include conversion of parking spaces to usable real estate and the addition of drop-off lanes, along with a variety of other possibilities, once autonomous vehicles become commonly used, Norm Miller, Hahn chair of real estate finance at the Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate at the University of San Diego School of Business, tells GlobeSt.com. Miller recently wrote an article about the implications of autonomous vehicles on real estate and infrastructure. We sat down with him for a chat about the deeper implications of this technological disruption for our industry.

At the time of our interview, Miller said he'd been at a national conference where the topic of autonomous vehicles' impact on the real estate industry came up a few times. “One of the problems that we have is that even though autonomous vehicles may allow us to shift parking to less expensive areas, regulations for building require extensive parking: the requirements are 1.5 spaces for a two-bedroom unit here, and that's typical throughout the country. This adds greatly to construction costs for multifamily and condos.”

The question is when will governments allow this to be pushed back in anticipation of autonomous vehicles, Miller says. The consensus seems to be that these vehicles will become commonplace within the next decade; within five years, the technology will be here, but regulations would slow it down, with some municipalities permitting it and some not. He said the belief is that changing parking regulations is a long way off, “but it could have a tremendous impact on lowering the cost of building apartments or more affordable homes. That's a huge positive. That's the one biggest personal impact that affects everybody.”

Another sector of the industry that will be greatly affected by autonomous vehicles is the retail arena. The average person he spoke with on the editorial board of a recent conference is 50 years old and currently receives an average of two packages per week from Amazon, whereas 10 years ago they received two packages per month from Amazon. “Nobody there is investing in traditional retail or big boxes—there is zero allocation to that. Everybody is investing in industrial.”

Within the industrial realm, cost savings from autonomous vehicles will be realized in the fact that, with driver-assisted trucks, truck drivers will be able to go long distances; trucking is a big component of industrial costs. “Distribution costs should become more efficient,” says Miller. “In the short run, three to five years, trucking companies that implemented such systems—if they could get approval for long-distance driving—will make more money. Conversely, in 10 years, the cost of shipping things should come down, making Amazon more competitive.”

In terms of office, there should be some benefit since developers don't need to build as much parking, says Miller. “But when you build an office building, above-ground parking is built on a slant—that will change with autonomous vehicles. In the future, we will build garages with floor-to-ceiling flat floors and ramps at the edges of giant floorplates that go up and down. The building will be more productive by converting two or three stories of that space to office or residential space rather than parking.”

Nobody's exactly sure how autonomous vehicles will affect leasing “Looking at it by sector, the big question is when we move to more autonomous vehicles will we also move to a model where fewer people own cars?” says Miller. “If fewer people own cars, will you be renting Uber or Lift-type cars? If that happens, you don't need to build garages as much. And what about existing infrastructure like gas stations and driveways? Will these become shared parking spaces? There will likely be a whole lot more sharing.”

It's also hard to say how investment will be affected by autonomous vehicles, “but you don't want properties that are obsolete,” says Miller. “Autonomous vehicles mean certain property types are not going to fare well, like big boxes. Traffic will not always be less. Cars will all be electric eventually, so emissions will not be great. I predict a carbon tax on non-efficient cars. The market will eventually demand cleaner air. Fossil fuels will not be competitive with batteries in electric cars, so there won't be as much of an environmental concern.”

Miller adds that infrastructure design will also need to adapt. “We will probably have to redesign roads around office buildings and convention centers—they will need drop-off lanes. Roads will have to be redesigned with more drop-off lanes on the fringes. It's hard to change, but maybe we'll do it by stacking.”