SANTA ANA, CA–There's no easy solution to the scarcity of housing, and higher and higher prices are the natural result of a market in which demand outweighs supply, First American Financial Corp.'s chief economist Mark Fleming tells GlobeSt.com. As we recently reported, while the existing-home market is still underperforming its potential, underperformance has improved considerably from a year ago despite rising prices.
Fleming also says rising real house prices are a nationwide phenomenon, since real house prices increased in all 50 states and in every market the firm tracks. Many markets even experienced double-digit real house price increases in March, compared with a year earlier, and the supply in most markets was insufficient for spring's strong demand. However, wages continued to move higher this spring as the labor market continued to improve. “Wage growth has helped to offset the impact that higher mortgage rates and increasing house prices are having on home affordability.”
We spoke with Fleming about how much homeowners' unwillingness to sell has contributed to climbing home prices and how this will impact the rental market for single-family and multifamily housing.
GlobeSt.com: How much is homeowners' unwillingness to sell contributing to climbing home prices?
Fleming: While not the only cause for climbing prices—strong Millennial demand and a shortage of new construction is also contributing—homeowners' unwillingness to sell was certainly the key short-term contributor this spring.
GlobeSt.com: What might entice owners to sell and alleviate the lack of inventory that's contributing to high prices?
Fleming: Economists refer to a “wealth effect” that incentivizes sales. That is, the more the price goes up and homeowners gain equity, the wealthier they feel, which encourages the act of selling. So, further price increases and the growth in equity may eventually overcome the fear of listing for lack of something to buy or the rate lock-in effect.
GlobeSt.com: How do interest rates come into play in this scenario?
Fleming: Rates contribute directly to the lock-in effect. The higher the current rate relative to the homeowner's existing rate, the larger the financial penalty for moving. Higher rates result in a stronger incentive not to move.
GlobeSt.com: What else should our readers know about the supply squeeze and your real house prices report?
Fleming: If one is considering buying, now may be a good time. The limited supply and strong demand conditions are going to be around for a while. Add rising mortgage rates to that, and it's likely that housing affordability will continue to decline.
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