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COSTA MESA, CA—Orange County construction jobs are growing by the thousands, and the market remains significantly short on housing units in a region where recession is “not in the cards” for the near future, Dr. Wallace Walrod told attendees at RealShare Orange County here Thursday. Walrod, chief economic adviser for Orange County Business Council, gave a keynote presentation called “Drivers of Orange County Economic Growth and Future Trends to Watch” at the conference.
Walrod said that the region's unemployment rate has ticked up a bit during the last two months, rising from 3.1% to 4.2%–due, in part, to some layoffs—and said it was something to look at over the next few months. But, in considering when the next recession might hit, even more than eight years in to this recovery, he said, “I don't see recession in the cards for the next 12 to 18 months,” adding that recession is often a self-fulfilling prophecy: when consumers fear a recession, they begin to pull back their spending, essentially “creating” a recession. And based on Chapman University's consumer-sentiment index, about 70% of the Orange County population is feeling a little bit under pressure economically, he said.
Nevertheless, the “housing market and construction are still on fire,” said Walrod. Building permits are low, and the market is still 50,000 to 60,000 units short of what is needed. While Orange County is a less-expensive housing market than Silicon Valley, it is still an expensive housing market when compared to most others in the country. In addition, construction jobs have grown by more than 6,000 jobs so far in the county this year, so development is still happening.
Some of the biggest industries in the county are tourism, healthcare, management and business administration and manufacturing, and salaries in the information-technology area are among the highest in the county, said Walrod. OC's top regional industry clusters include medical devices, apparel, biopharmaceuticals, communication equipment, IT, hospitality and tourism. This varies significantly from L.A.'s, top regional clusters, which include video production and distribution, apparel, music and sound recording and jewelry.
OC's job-creation leaders include big-data analytics, cybersecurity, virtual reality, advanced transportation and ophthalmics. Top occupations include nurses and sales representatives, with Irvine being the submarket with the most job postings. Walrod cited the region's highly educated workforce, with STEM becoming a bigger deal. The job categories with the highest risk of being replaced with automation over the next 20 years include retail sales, accountants and auditors.
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COSTA MESA, CA—Orange County construction jobs are growing by the thousands, and the market remains significantly short on housing units in a region where recession is “not in the cards” for the near future, Dr. Wallace Walrod told attendees at RealShare Orange County here Thursday. Walrod, chief economic adviser for Orange County Business Council, gave a keynote presentation called “Drivers of Orange County Economic Growth and Future Trends to Watch” at the conference.
Walrod said that the region's unemployment rate has ticked up a bit during the last two months, rising from 3.1% to 4.2%–due, in part, to some layoffs—and said it was something to look at over the next few months. But, in considering when the next recession might hit, even more than eight years in to this recovery, he said, “I don't see recession in the cards for the next 12 to 18 months,” adding that recession is often a self-fulfilling prophecy: when consumers fear a recession, they begin to pull back their spending, essentially “creating” a recession. And based on Chapman University's consumer-sentiment index, about 70% of the Orange County population is feeling a little bit under pressure economically, he said.
Nevertheless, the “housing market and construction are still on fire,” said Walrod. Building permits are low, and the market is still 50,000 to 60,000 units short of what is needed. While Orange County is a less-expensive housing market than Silicon Valley, it is still an expensive housing market when compared to most others in the country. In addition, construction jobs have grown by more than 6,000 jobs so far in the county this year, so development is still happening.
Some of the biggest industries in the county are tourism, healthcare, management and business administration and manufacturing, and salaries in the information-technology area are among the highest in the county, said Walrod. OC's top regional industry clusters include medical devices, apparel, biopharmaceuticals, communication equipment, IT, hospitality and tourism. This varies significantly from L.A.'s, top regional clusters, which include video production and distribution, apparel, music and sound recording and jewelry.
OC's job-creation leaders include big-data analytics, cybersecurity, virtual reality, advanced transportation and ophthalmics. Top occupations include nurses and sales representatives, with Irvine being the submarket with the most job postings. Walrod cited the region's highly educated workforce, with STEM becoming a bigger deal. The job categories with the highest risk of being replaced with automation over the next 20 years include retail sales, accountants and auditors.
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Carrie Rossenfeld
Carrie Rossenfeld is a reporter for the San Diego and Orange County markets on GlobeSt.com and a contributor to Real Estate Forum. She was a trade-magazine and newsletter editor in New York City before moving to Southern California to become a freelance writer and editor for magazines, books and websites. Rossenfeld has written extensively on topics including commercial real estate, running a medical practice, intellectual-property licensing and giftware. She has edited books about profiting from real estate and has ghostwritten a book about starting a home-based business.
