SEATTLE—Real Capital Analytics data for the first half of 2015 show a quarter-to-quarter volume decline of 11%. However, Colliers International chalks this up not to a falling-off in demand or liquidity, but rather to a lack of quality product. Moreover, the firm's second-quarter US Capital Flows Research Report shows a 38% year-over-year increase for the first six months of this year.
“Though hungry, investors are still somewhat selective, while assets are getting pricier in some key core markets, making prime acquisition targets harder to come by,” according to the Colliers report. It notes that compared to Q1, office trades slipped by only 1%, while multifamily, “the stalwart investment of this cycle,” was down by just 9%.
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“In light of the heated levels of activity in the first quarter of the year, we are seeing modest decreases in Q2 transactions across most property types, with only development land showing a quarterly increase of 9%,” says Brian Ward, president, capital markets & investment services | Americas for Colliers. “However, we are experiencing a healthy pace that, should activity continue at current levels, will set a record for total transactions during an already noteworthy year.”
He notes that “Q1 set a record in cross-border activity with $22.2 billion invested across all major property types.” For Q2, cross-border deal flow was down from Q1, but at 13% of all transaction activity it was still above the five-year average of 10%.
Investors' focus on good assets, according to the Colliers report, is shown in the deal types. Single-property transactions were up 1.4% overall, while multi-property portfolio and entity level transactions saw declines. “A multitude of operational sins can be more easily hidden in a sprawling property portfolio, calling for longer due-diligence periods and a natural gravitation to single-asset deals that can close more quickly,” the report states.
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International investors continue to place more than 50% of their investment dollars into the top six US metro areas during Q2, according to Colliers. Top draw was Manhattan, which drew over $4 billion of foreign capital across all property types during Q2. That included the agreement by South Korea's Lotte Group to pay more than $800 million, or almost $900,000 per key, for the New York Palace Hotel from Northwood Investors, which paid $377 million for the property in 2011 and refinanced $250 million of that from Wells Fargo in 2013.
Chicago also saw significant trades, totaling more than $1 billion; a good number of those were industrial properties, many from the Norges Bank Investment Management-funded Prologis acquisition of KTR Capital Partners. Washington, DC and Dallas weren't far below the $1-billion mark for cross-border investment, while foreign investor volume for Los Angeles, Atlanta and Northern New Jersey totaled about $2.5 billion during Q2.
Colliers notes that Canadian capital continues to seek opportunities in traditional gateway cities, as well as more opportunistic markets, with Manhattan, San Diego and Portland, OR ranking as the top markets by volume this quarter. That being said, the leader among countries sending capital into US real estate was Norway, its $5.8 billion of dollar volume more than double that of Canada and more than triple that of China.
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