Gargantuan Amazon has America's cities groveling while executing one of the biggest PR stunts of all time—setting up a grand contest. The winner gets Amazon's second headquarters, the prospect for large scale development and an infusion of thousands of jobs, maybe as many as 50,000. In return, the winner probably must fork over some combination of free land, long-term tax breaks, and various other incentives like taxpayer paid infrastructure improvements—well, that's one way to get government to improve crumbling infrastructure.

Now 238 cities and counties have submitted applications, garnering massive attention for the retailing behemoth and raising hopes across the country for economic redemption or at least a welcome jobs creator. At the same time, lost in the publicity swirl, Amazon is helping put out of business local shopping malls critical to tax base in many of these places, which don't have a remote chance for landing the company.

That's because the fix is in. Amazon already has a pretty good idea of where it wants to end up. If it can generate some added corporate welfare sweeteners in landing at its target or helping make their decision between their already identified handful of potential targets, all the better. Indeed much better for the company.

So where will Amazon end up? Well, let's do some process of elimination to find an answer.

The good bet is that Amazon will want to locate in a place that has the same attributes as Seattle, but somewhere serving the East Coast/Midwest/ Southeast population centers. Anywhere west of Dallas is probably eliminated.

Amazon will be very protective of its hard charging, but cool vibe culture, attractive to driven, techy, digital-oriented younger professionals, who want a place with recreational and entertainment attractions fostering comfortable lifestyles. If you have two headquarters, people will be shifting back and forth, so you want a place where people in Seattle will want to go and visa verse. That eliminates places like desperate Detroit and other Rust Belt relics. Pittsburgh is touted—Carnegie Mellon offers a high tech university link, but it is small scale and offers little to match the recreational attractions of ocean and mountains in the Pacific Northwest.

And Pittsburgh lacks an essential transportation hub nexus. At present, Amazon benefits from the large Seattle port, but is about as far away as it can get from Eastern gateways, which link across the country and to the rest of the world through various international airports, interstate junctions, and seaports. For a company dependent on logistics, tapping directly into a transportation center would logically be a must. FedEx has made Memphis into a shipping center, but Amazon won't attract the workforce it wants to a secondary or tertiary location without at least some bright lights, big city attributes. And it probably wants some nearby major university talent to draw on. Strike any of those candidates which don't fit this picture.

Chicago is always a possibility, because of O'Hare and its 24-hour city features, and it has wide open spaces to develop west and south of the city. Northwestern and the U. of Chicago offer intellectual muscle.

Although they boast the transportation infrastructure, Dallas and Atlanta don't match up well with Seattle on business culture, politics or local sensibilities—it's like oil and water, literally in the case of Dallas. Denver would be a better fit, but it is too far west to make sense.

That leaves the New York area, which is probably too congested and has too much going on already. Amazon's impact would be less noticeable—the company could draw on a huge talent pool, but it would be harder to retain talent given all the competition for it. New Jersey has put in a big play for Newark, but would that fit the Amazon brand? No.

And then there is the Washington, DC area up through Baltimore. Jeff Bezos already owns the Washington Post and moving in the vicinity would boost further his political clout. It's a prime gateway with all sorts of airports and road intersections, feeding into the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Baltimore is a major port. And there is plenty of university talent with Georgetown, GW, and Johns Hopkins–young people already flock into the area. There are also plenty of development sites, not to mention a major cloud computing data center complex in suburban Virginia. Amazon lives off cloud computing.

The DC area–that's my bet.

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.