Mike Fowler

LOS ANGELES—Ecommerce may be the most prominent driver of the industrial market, but it certainly isn't the only one. In a end-of-the-year report, JLL outlined the five factors impacting the industrial market. At the top of the list, is infrastructure revival, followed by ecommerce and urban logistics, updates at the ports, institutional investor interest and the rise of creative industrial redevelopment. To find out more about the issues impacting the industrial market, and what these mean for industrial market growth in 2017—spoiler: it's another big year—we sat down with Mike Fowler, EVP at JLL for an exclusive interview.

GlobeSt.com: The industrial market has had a record-breaking year in 2016 and 2015. Do you expect this trend to continue through 2017?

Mike Fowler: At this point I do not see any major shifts or trends that will have a negative impact on vacancy or demand in 2017. With a less than one percent vacancy rate across all LA sub-markets the demand for industrial space is pretty even. Regional relocation options are given much greater consideration by tenants. It is not uncommon for a South Bay tenant to evaluate a move to the central or mid-counties markets and vise-versa as they seek out alternatives.

GlobeSt.com: Are the majority of new development projects in L.A. redevelopment projects?

Fowler: Yes, the site left to new development today are all redevelopment projects, there are no greenfield sites left in the L.A. Basin. Every development will have some measure of entitlement challenges or special conditions imposed; forcing developers to be creative and flexible.

GlobeSt.com: Is there any concern that new economic and trade policies from the new administration will impact the industrial market next year?

Fowler: The increased minimum wage in California will have a negative impact on manufacturing jobs in the region. Fortunately, the demand is such that those losses will be quickly back-filled with the expanding logistics and e-commerce sectors.

GlobeSt.com: Why have institutional investors increased interest in industrial assets?

Fowler: Industrial assets have shown strong rent growth and appreciation. With the shifting retail landscape, from store front retail to e-commerce fulfillment, industrial assets continue to show robust upside.

GlobeSt.com: How will infrastructure revival fuel the industrial market?

Fowler: Construction jobs on any scale—infrastructure, residential, commercial, etc.—are good for the local economy and industrial markets. Companies that service the construction industry such as roofing materials, lumber, concrete all fuel demand in the industrial real estate market. Infrastructure projects such as the Gerald Desmond Bridge will help modernize the infrastructure in Southern California. The geographic advantage that Southern California has only goes so far. If we fail to keep pace with a competitive port of entry and transportation infrastructure we will see a loss in the throughput of goods and a major driver for regional employment.

GlobeSt.com: Ecommerce has been the most prevalent trend in industrial. Will it remain the biggest driver of the market, or are there other trends that are becoming bigger market drivers?

Fowler: E-commerce is the story. Whether it is logistics companies shifting from pallet or truck load fulfillment strategies to individual parcel fulfillment strategies or the parcel delivery companies themselves expanding and modernizing their delivery networks, every requirement has some measure of consideration for an e-commerce component. The likely next wave is in the cold-chain or grocery delivery. As consumers become more and more comfortable ordering groceries on their smart phones and expecting it to arrive almost immediately after hitting “checkout” the grocery delivery networks in Southern California will need to follow-suit.

Mike Fowler

LOS ANGELES—Ecommerce may be the most prominent driver of the industrial market, but it certainly isn't the only one. In a end-of-the-year report, JLL outlined the five factors impacting the industrial market. At the top of the list, is infrastructure revival, followed by ecommerce and urban logistics, updates at the ports, institutional investor interest and the rise of creative industrial redevelopment. To find out more about the issues impacting the industrial market, and what these mean for industrial market growth in 2017—spoiler: it's another big year—we sat down with Mike Fowler, EVP at JLL for an exclusive interview.

GlobeSt.com: The industrial market has had a record-breaking year in 2016 and 2015. Do you expect this trend to continue through 2017?

Mike Fowler: At this point I do not see any major shifts or trends that will have a negative impact on vacancy or demand in 2017. With a less than one percent vacancy rate across all LA sub-markets the demand for industrial space is pretty even. Regional relocation options are given much greater consideration by tenants. It is not uncommon for a South Bay tenant to evaluate a move to the central or mid-counties markets and vise-versa as they seek out alternatives.

GlobeSt.com: Are the majority of new development projects in L.A. redevelopment projects?

Fowler: Yes, the site left to new development today are all redevelopment projects, there are no greenfield sites left in the L.A. Basin. Every development will have some measure of entitlement challenges or special conditions imposed; forcing developers to be creative and flexible.

GlobeSt.com: Is there any concern that new economic and trade policies from the new administration will impact the industrial market next year?

Fowler: The increased minimum wage in California will have a negative impact on manufacturing jobs in the region. Fortunately, the demand is such that those losses will be quickly back-filled with the expanding logistics and e-commerce sectors.

GlobeSt.com: Why have institutional investors increased interest in industrial assets?

Fowler: Industrial assets have shown strong rent growth and appreciation. With the shifting retail landscape, from store front retail to e-commerce fulfillment, industrial assets continue to show robust upside.

GlobeSt.com: How will infrastructure revival fuel the industrial market?

Fowler: Construction jobs on any scale—infrastructure, residential, commercial, etc.—are good for the local economy and industrial markets. Companies that service the construction industry such as roofing materials, lumber, concrete all fuel demand in the industrial real estate market. Infrastructure projects such as the Gerald Desmond Bridge will help modernize the infrastructure in Southern California. The geographic advantage that Southern California has only goes so far. If we fail to keep pace with a competitive port of entry and transportation infrastructure we will see a loss in the throughput of goods and a major driver for regional employment.

GlobeSt.com: Ecommerce has been the most prevalent trend in industrial. Will it remain the biggest driver of the market, or are there other trends that are becoming bigger market drivers?

Fowler: E-commerce is the story. Whether it is logistics companies shifting from pallet or truck load fulfillment strategies to individual parcel fulfillment strategies or the parcel delivery companies themselves expanding and modernizing their delivery networks, every requirement has some measure of consideration for an e-commerce component. The likely next wave is in the cold-chain or grocery delivery. As consumers become more and more comfortable ordering groceries on their smart phones and expecting it to arrive almost immediately after hitting “checkout” the grocery delivery networks in Southern California will need to follow-suit.

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Kelsi Maree Borland

Kelsi Maree Borland is a freelance journalist and magazine writer based in Los Angeles, California. For more than 5 years, she has extensively reported on the commercial real estate industry, covering major deals across all commercial asset classes, investment strategy and capital markets trends, market commentary, economic trends and new technologies disrupting and revolutionizing the industry. Her work appears daily on GlobeSt.com and regularly in Real Estate Forum Magazine. As a magazine writer, she covers lifestyle and travel trends. Her work has appeared in Angeleno, Los Angeles Magazine, Travel and Leisure and more.

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