ATTOM Data Solutions' Daren Blomquist

IRVINE, CA—Home prices in 89% of 414 US counties rose faster than wages in the third quarter, ATTOM Data Solutions said Thursday. Twenty-four percent of US county housing markets were less affordable than their historic averages in Q3, according to ATTOM's Q3 2016 Home Affordability Index.

“The improving affordability trend we noted in our Q2 report reversed course in Q3,” says Daren Blomquist, SVP at ATTOM. He notes that along with home price acceleration, there was a slowing wage growth in local markets as well as nationwide.

“Average weekly wages declined in the first quarter of this year following 13 consecutive quarters with year-over-year increases,” Blomquist says. “This unhealthy combination resulted in worsening affordability in 63% of markets,” despite mortgage rates that are down 45 basis points from a year ago.

One silver lining to the latest report is that affordability “actually improved in some of the highest-priced markets that have been bastions of bad affordability, mostly the result of annual home price appreciation slowing to low single-digit percentages in those markets,” he says. “This is an indication that home prices are finally responding to affordability constraints,” thereby providing “a modicum of good news for prospective buyers who have been priced out of those high-priced markets.”

Furthermore, although the 24% figure for counties that are less affordable than historic norms represents the highest share since Q3 2009, it's still a far smaller share than seven years ago. At that time, 47% of markets were less affordable than their historic affordability averages.

Out of the 414 counties analyzed in the report, 101 counties had an affordability index below 100 in Q3 2016, meaning that buying a median-priced home in that county was less affordable than the historic average for that county going back to Q1 2005. They included Harris County (Houston), TX; Kings County (Brooklyn), NY; Dallas County, TX; Bexar County (San Antonio), TX; and Alameda County, CA in the San Francisco metro area.

Kings County, though, was among the 37% of counties in which affordability improved compared to a year ago—by 5% in the case of Kings, which nonetheless tops the national list of least affordable counties by share of wages. Other bellwether markets for high prices that saw year-over-year improvement included Marin County, CA (1% improvement); Santa Clara County, CA (3%); Arlington County, VA (5%); and Maui County, HI (1%).

Affordability worsened in 261 counties during Q3 compared to a year ago. Among the standouts were Los Angeles County, CA (2% worse); Harris County, TX (3%); Maricopa County, AZ (3%); Miami-Dade County, FL (5%) Queens County, NY (1%); and King County, WA (2%). That being said, Queens, Miami-Dade, Los Angeles and Maricopa counties all are ranked among the counties that are still considered affordable by historical standards.

Home prices have increased 10 times faster than wages since 2012, ATTOM says. Across the 414 counties, the average annual change in average weekly wages was -0.1% while the average annual change in median home sales prices was 7%. Since bottoming out in Q1 2012, median home prices nationwide have risen 60%, while average weekly wages have gone up 6% during that same time period. The complete report can be accessed here.

ATTOM Data Solutions' Daren Blomquist

IRVINE, CA—Home prices in 89% of 414 US counties rose faster than wages in the third quarter, ATTOM Data Solutions said Thursday. Twenty-four percent of US county housing markets were less affordable than their historic averages in Q3, according to ATTOM's Q3 2016 Home Affordability Index.

“The improving affordability trend we noted in our Q2 report reversed course in Q3,” says Daren Blomquist, SVP at ATTOM. He notes that along with home price acceleration, there was a slowing wage growth in local markets as well as nationwide.

“Average weekly wages declined in the first quarter of this year following 13 consecutive quarters with year-over-year increases,” Blomquist says. “This unhealthy combination resulted in worsening affordability in 63% of markets,” despite mortgage rates that are down 45 basis points from a year ago.

One silver lining to the latest report is that affordability “actually improved in some of the highest-priced markets that have been bastions of bad affordability, mostly the result of annual home price appreciation slowing to low single-digit percentages in those markets,” he says. “This is an indication that home prices are finally responding to affordability constraints,” thereby providing “a modicum of good news for prospective buyers who have been priced out of those high-priced markets.”

Furthermore, although the 24% figure for counties that are less affordable than historic norms represents the highest share since Q3 2009, it's still a far smaller share than seven years ago. At that time, 47% of markets were less affordable than their historic affordability averages.

Out of the 414 counties analyzed in the report, 101 counties had an affordability index below 100 in Q3 2016, meaning that buying a median-priced home in that county was less affordable than the historic average for that county going back to Q1 2005. They included Harris County (Houston), TX; Kings County (Brooklyn), NY; Dallas County, TX; Bexar County (San Antonio), TX; and Alameda County, CA in the San Francisco metro area.

Kings County, though, was among the 37% of counties in which affordability improved compared to a year ago—by 5% in the case of Kings, which nonetheless tops the national list of least affordable counties by share of wages. Other bellwether markets for high prices that saw year-over-year improvement included Marin County, CA (1% improvement); Santa Clara County, CA (3%); Arlington County, VA (5%); and Maui County, HI (1%).

Affordability worsened in 261 counties during Q3 compared to a year ago. Among the standouts were Los Angeles County, CA (2% worse); Harris County, TX (3%); Maricopa County, AZ (3%); Miami-Dade County, FL (5%) Queens County, NY (1%); and King County, WA (2%). That being said, Queens, Miami-Dade, Los Angeles and Maricopa counties all are ranked among the counties that are still considered affordable by historical standards.

Home prices have increased 10 times faster than wages since 2012, ATTOM says. Across the 414 counties, the average annual change in average weekly wages was -0.1% while the average annual change in median home sales prices was 7%. Since bottoming out in Q1 2012, median home prices nationwide have risen 60%, while average weekly wages have gone up 6% during that same time period. The complete report can be accessed here.

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Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.

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