Screen capture from Airbnb

NEW YORK CITY—Barring a successful regulatory push to modify its business model, the coming year could see Airbnb accommodating as many guests as some of the best-known hotel brands, DBRS Inc. says in a new report. “While hotel fundamentals are currently healthy and delinquency rates are low, 2018 is looking to be the year of the short-term rental industry,” according to DBRS.

Airbnb—which is only the most familiar of a number of crowd-sourced lodging services—will continue to be bolstered by factors including “celebrity endorsements, a trendy image among Millennials, ease of use and self-entrepreneurial capabilities,” the report states. “Next year will be the year of the alternative hospitality service.”

A key reason for this prediction is the growth that Airbnb has managed, at low cost. “Unlike the hotel industry, which requires substantial periodic investment to renovate assets and develop properties to remain competitive, the Airbnb business model requires comparatively little capital investment,” according to DBRS. “Instead, it rests on the successful recruitment of everyday people to host guests in their own homes, expanding the supply of rooms simply through an increase in home listings.”

In fact, says DBRS, “Airbnb's listings have already surpassed the number of rooms offered by Hilton, Marriott and Wyndham combined.” The San Francisco-based company currently has three million listings across 191 countries; citing data from NERA Economic Consulting, DBRS says these listings could accommodate 200 million guest arrivals next year.

The rental recruitment system that Airbnb employs expands its own business by listing the rental operator's property as an Airbnb-rentable property. “Short of adopting a similar business model, more mainstream hotel companies will be forced to continue to invest significantly in capital upgrades of their owned real estate portfolios and the growth of those portfolios through the acquisition of existing properties and developable land,” according to the DBRS report. It's possible, says DBRS, that such a business model could translate to other industries aside from hospitality and transportation, where Uber, Lyft and similar services recruit drivers in much the same way.

In the meantime, capital upgrades to existing properties not only don't come cheap but tend to be ongoing as well. DBRS cites a recent CMBS deal that it rated in which limited-service Hilton-franchised properties that were part of the collateral had received over $9,800 per key in capital investment since 2014 and were projected to receive an additional $4,200 per key through 2020.

Upon reviewing a number of single-borrower CMBS transactions executed in 2017, DBRS also observed that limited-service hotels had received more than $3,800 per key annually in capital upgrades over the past six years, with an additional $2,800 per key expected over the next five years. Capital investment per key was even higher for full-service hotels, which had received nearly $8,400 per key and were expected to receive more than $10,100 per key over the next five years.

Yet spending money isn't the only tactic hoteliers are employing to stay competitive. DBRS notes that operating companies are making adjustments to the standard hotel model based on feedback related to changing consumer preferences. These adjustments may include creating more residential units along with “more innovative hotel product offerings that offer a 'neighborhood feel' that is conducive to socializing.”

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Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.