Ten-X's Peter Muoio

IRVINE, CA—A 0.1% contraction marked the seventh consecutive month of declines in commercial property pricing, Ten-X Commercial said Thursday. The firm's latest Commercial Real Estate Nowcast is now up just 1.5% from a year ago.

“The US presidential election is a year behind us, but the events of intervening months have done nothing to alleviate investors' wariness,” says Peter Muoio, chief economist with Ten-X. “Instead, the Ten-X CRE Nowcast's annual growth rate continues to reach new lows. Pessimism about fundamentals, a policy environment in a constant state of flux and impending interest rate hikes are all adversely affecting commercial real estate and the market's outlook at this stage is wary.”

That wariness was reflected in November pricing performance across all major sectors aside from retail, which not only led the way by actually posting monthly gains but also in terms of year-over-year increases. Pricing for retail properties grew 0.6% from October, representing the sixth consecutive monthly uptick in values for the sector. That translates into annual pricing growth of 5.8%, a better Y-O-Y result than any other major property type posted for November. Ten-X notes that this growth is surprising given the retail sector's weakening fundamentals.

Office also posted a monthly gain, albeit a shallower one at 0.5%, but its performance performance in recent months has been more variable than that of retail. Further, Ten-X says that the office sector is really a tale of two tiers, each with its own set of headaches. Struggling markets have continued to see limited growth, while the stronger ones are grappling with an influx of new supply.

Conversely, the Ten-X Hotel Nowcast slipped 0.5% from October, its fifth decline over the past seven months. That's the case even as the three pillars of hotel demand—domestic vacationers, business travel and foreign travel to the US—have gained strength recently.

The Ten-X Industrial Nowcast marked its sixth pricing decline in seven months with a 1.1% drop in November, resulting in a Y-O-Y decline of 3.2%. The sector's weak performance is especially striking given the rise of new demand drivers underpinning it, including e-commerce growth, cloud computing centers and cannabis legalization. Ten-X chalks up the slowdown in pricing to an investor view that values have gotten ahead of fundamentals.

Multifamily saw its fifth consecutive monthly drop, with pricing down 0.2% from October. Apartment pricing is now up just 3.4% Y-O-Y. In the West, November's decline brought pricing below its year-ago level.

“Amid the overall market malaise, several sectors have defied projections, including the industrial sector's sudden pricing reversal and a retail segment that has seen an unexpected boost in recent months,” says Muoio. “Across the market overall, the November data confirm that commercial real estate investors remain wary.”

Ten-X's Peter Muoio

IRVINE, CA—A 0.1% contraction marked the seventh consecutive month of declines in commercial property pricing, Ten-X Commercial said Thursday. The firm's latest Commercial Real Estate Nowcast is now up just 1.5% from a year ago.

“The US presidential election is a year behind us, but the events of intervening months have done nothing to alleviate investors' wariness,” says Peter Muoio, chief economist with Ten-X. “Instead, the Ten-X CRE Nowcast's annual growth rate continues to reach new lows. Pessimism about fundamentals, a policy environment in a constant state of flux and impending interest rate hikes are all adversely affecting commercial real estate and the market's outlook at this stage is wary.”

That wariness was reflected in November pricing performance across all major sectors aside from retail, which not only led the way by actually posting monthly gains but also in terms of year-over-year increases. Pricing for retail properties grew 0.6% from October, representing the sixth consecutive monthly uptick in values for the sector. That translates into annual pricing growth of 5.8%, a better Y-O-Y result than any other major property type posted for November. Ten-X notes that this growth is surprising given the retail sector's weakening fundamentals.

Office also posted a monthly gain, albeit a shallower one at 0.5%, but its performance performance in recent months has been more variable than that of retail. Further, Ten-X says that the office sector is really a tale of two tiers, each with its own set of headaches. Struggling markets have continued to see limited growth, while the stronger ones are grappling with an influx of new supply.

Conversely, the Ten-X Hotel Nowcast slipped 0.5% from October, its fifth decline over the past seven months. That's the case even as the three pillars of hotel demand—domestic vacationers, business travel and foreign travel to the US—have gained strength recently.

The Ten-X Industrial Nowcast marked its sixth pricing decline in seven months with a 1.1% drop in November, resulting in a Y-O-Y decline of 3.2%. The sector's weak performance is especially striking given the rise of new demand drivers underpinning it, including e-commerce growth, cloud computing centers and cannabis legalization. Ten-X chalks up the slowdown in pricing to an investor view that values have gotten ahead of fundamentals.

Multifamily saw its fifth consecutive monthly drop, with pricing down 0.2% from October. Apartment pricing is now up just 3.4% Y-O-Y. In the West, November's decline brought pricing below its year-ago level.

“Amid the overall market malaise, several sectors have defied projections, including the industrial sector's sudden pricing reversal and a retail segment that has seen an unexpected boost in recent months,” says Muoio. “Across the market overall, the November data confirm that commercial real estate investors remain wary.”

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Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.