LOS ANGELES—Agility heading into the new year is not just for the ski slopes anymore. CBRE Group is advising investors and tenants alike to cultivate this quality in their commercial property portfolios. “We are optimistic about the US economy in the shortterm, but agility is more important than ever for investors and occupiers,” says Spencer Levy, Americas head of research and senior economic advisor at CBRE.
CBRE's 2018 Real Estate Market Outlook report calls for moderate economic growth, slowing employment gains and flattening cap rates in the coming year. However, the firm cautions that anticipated federal changes to the tax code, immigration policies and infrastructure spending could have substantial, sometimes offsetting, impacts on the economy. “We're now confronting a wider range of possible outcomes for the economy, depending on how various initiatives such as federal policy changes play out,” Levy says.
The CBRE report details exactly how agility translates into action on a sector-by-sector basis. Broadly speaking, in the capital markets CBRE recommends that investors shift to a focus on income gains rather than appreciation, especially as cap rates flatten out or, in some cases, begin rising.
For the office sector, a strategy of extending maturities and constant communication with equity investors will pay off as growth in the sector decelerates. Retail will continue to face a “barbell effect,” giving rise to both weakness and investment opportunities in secondary and suburban markets.
Going smaller scale is also a watchword in the industrial sector, as investors turn their attention to smaller, urban-infill warehouses handling e-commerce distribution even as big-box facilities are a continued draw. Multifamily investors may see some relief from bidding wars as the construction pipeline—still expected to be robust for '18—empties out somewhat. Lodging is expected to see continued growth in the coming year, but CBRE says that some markets will have to adjust to fluctuations in travel from overseas.
As for occupiers, the need for agility isn't based on acquisitions but rather on the need to compete for talent. Accordingly, flexible offerings along with amenities and technology-driven environments are on the agenda.
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