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Analysis Firm Issues Caution to Rent Controllers

DALLAS-A data gatherer for the apartment sector issues a note of caution about today's euphoria as jobs and rental growths crest with the New Economy. The firm, which maintains a database of 2.5 million units, is predicting a falloff from the good times in 2003, based on second-quarter findings.

By Connie Gore | Updated on August 29, 2000

Dallas-based Axiometrics Inc. is deciding to make public data used to strategically predict rental conditions in 55 US markets – a tool delivering an upper hand to those who set multi-family rents.

Five years of analyses show rents will continue to rise until 2003 when an overall economic slowdown is predicted to occur, based on second-quarter findings that compare annual market rental growth to actual rents. The firm, headed by Murray Ross and Ron Johnsey, counts among its 50-plus client roster REITs, investment firms and property management companies. The Axiometrics model has been “warmly received … from the guys who understand the math,” Ross told GlobeSt.com.

The markets with the highest correlation coefficient between actual rental rate growth and what’s predicted for the next two years are Dallas, Houston, Orlando, Phoenix, Portland and San Jose. Apartment REITs with the highest correlation between actual changes and predicted growth are AvalonBay Communities, BRE Properties, Equity Residential, Essex Property Trust, Summit Properties and United Dominion Realty, according to Axiometrics.

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