PHOENIX-Next year could be rosy for tourism and the hotel industry if consumer confidence can be buoyed and recession can be staved off.

In 2001, hotel occupancy should rise slightly and room rates should rise by 3%, says Rich Warnick, head of Warnick & Co., a Phoenix-based hotel analysis firm. “If there’s a recession you can expect to see that hotel occupancies are going to drop off,” he says.

Those predictions all go by the wayside if the recession is longer and deeper than expected.

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