But while the news of a possible recession and a depressed stock market looms over the nation, the commercial real estate market, which has demonstrated continuing demand, is poised for a soft landing in the event of a recession and will likely continue to sizzle, unlike its crash a decade ago. Rosen attributes that in part to the real estate market's volatility and the Fed's cuts this week.
In his report, Rosen concluded that the nation continues to be at the whim of a possible recession because similar factors from the 1974-75, 1980-82 and 1991 recessions are evident today. Those risks include a tight labor market, high oil prices and an overvalued stock market. The recent slump in the tech-heavy Nasdaq and activity in the Middle East have also contributed to risk factors.
Rosen cautions thinking the worst, however, noting that no one or two factors can indicate whether the country is heading into a recession. But he does say that it is unusual to see so many danger signals at once and warns that policymakers, investors and the public should keep a watchful eye on the economy.
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