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Retail Market to Stay Strong in 2001 Despite Over Saturation of Space

NEWPORT BEACH, CA-Marcus & Millichap's Retail Research Report released at the end of 2000 reflects a healthy market this year, although recent developments in the economy may change a few variables.

By Joel Cone | Updated on January 09, 2001

NEWPORT BEACH, CA-Despite a slowing national economy, the outlook for Orange County’s economy remains strong this year overall. However, some recent developments have changed, somewhat, the outlook for the retail sector in 2001, says an analyst with Marcus & Millichap.

Brian W. Abernethy, manager of research services for the firm, which specializes in investment property, was a little surprised by the timing of the Federal Reserve’s move to lower interest rates, but not in the 50-basis point drop itself. He had expected it, although in the later part of this month. And, he says, there are rumors that another 50-basis point cut may be in the offing by the end of this month, “although we won’t see any results from that for at least six months,” Abernethy says.

Abernethy’s greatest concern is with conflicting local economic reports regarding the rate of job growth in the county this year. Some say 40,000 new jobs will be created, while some revised reports call for 50,000 jobs. Based on lower earnings reported by some companies, combined with some large retailers like Home Base and Montgomery Wards going out of business, he believes that 40,000 number is the more likely figure.

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