"We're forecasting slower growth, but hopefully steady growth in 2001," Kyser told more than 1,000 Southland real estate professionals who gathered yesterday for the annual real estate forecast sponsored by the Institute of Real Estate Management's Greater Los Angeles chapter. "There are no signs of a major decline in California's economy."
The conference also included keynote addresses by Mayor Richard Riordan and SunAmerica Inc. Chairman and CEO Eli Broad. Real Estate Southern California magazine, the LA-based sister publication of GlobeSt.com, was the meeting's exclusive media sponsor.
Kyser's relatively upbeat forecast for LA County contrasts with the gloomier picture most economists are painting for the nation as a whole. The Federal Reserve Board showed its own concern earlier this month, when it announced a surprising half-point reduction in interest rates.
Despite more staff cutbacks in the Southland's dot-com sector, Kyser says LA County will add about 80,000 new jobs this year. That's a solid follow-up to the 90,000 created in 2000, he adds.
There are, however, some clouds on the horizon. The economist says that both the public and private sectors need to work together fast to produce more affordable housing for the region's growing workforce. He notes that most of the apartments built over the past year or two have been aimed at upper-income renters--a factor that has done little to alleviate the county's chronic shortage of affordable housing.
"We're running out of land in the urban core," Kyser told the crowd. "We have to look at every piece of land in new ways."
LA's economy will also suffer if the impending film industry strike becomes a reality, Kyser says, estimating that the financial impact on the county could reach $1 billion a month. But a rise in tourism might soften the blow, he adds, as Hollywood's numerous revitalization projects and the new Disney California theme park in Anaheim help to draw more visitors to the Southland.
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