As far as dot-com failures, and the possible impact on service providers and other types of businesses that have been born out of the technology boom, he says their failures will have "really no impact" on class A office space. As for the impact on class B space he notes, "The market was too overheated. People were desperate; they weren't caring about terms; they were just taking space to get in there."
The dot-com failures and return of space to the market "is not a bad thing for anybody, except of course the business that went under. For the next guy coming into the space, it's already wired, built and ready to go. It used to be it could take six months to get into a space, but now people can move right in."
"Several hundred dot-coms have gone out of business, but it hasn't hurt the market here. In a city this size, even if it went to 6% you wouldn't feel it" he adds. "The real estate market isn't like the stock market. It's not so obvious."
"Going forward, if you predict a recession, things could be different in the next six months. Real estate is a lagging indicator, not a leading one. Some are already saying we're in a recession now, but you wouldn't know it by real estate. We're the last ones on the way down and the last on the way up. Rents may stabilize and there will definitely be more choices for tenants," he explains.
"Not only can tenants get into space quicker, but they're paying less out-of-pocket expenses because the space is already updated. By the time technology companies could move in to the old, antiquated spaces they were looking at their industry was changing. The space was holding them back and they were investing in a lot of the changes. New tenants are the real beneficiaries of the dot-com shakeout," he adds.
In terms of how the shakeout is impacting owners and the new trend toward merging companies to stave off the tough market, he notes, "Owners want credit tenants. Owners are averse to risk. They don't want to deal with high-risk tenants, but they were intrigued by the high rents they could get from these start-ups, but they don't want to risk having someone who won't pay it in the end."
He also says, "An owner has to approve a merger in a sense. The owner has some say in that, looking at the credit of the new tenant. A tenant can't just take all assets out and walk out. At the same time, if the merger will keep the business floating, the owner doesn't want to force the tenant to go out of business. The terms of the lease will dictate what the owner and tenant can or can't do. With all of the Chapter 11 filings, the bankruptcy courts are becoming more involved in determining what the owners will get if anything from these failed companies."
He concludes, "Whatever the market is like today, it will be different a few months from now. That's the way it always is. There's always change. That's the role we play as broker. We are the eyes and ears of the market."
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