Industrial property vacancy for the 12 months ended Dec. 31 averaged 6.1% in Broward County, 6.6% in Miami-Dade County and 4.5% in Palm Beach County. Miami-Dade's inventory is 145 million sf; Broward, 76 million sf; and Palm Beach, 39 million sf.
The possibility of weakness exists in the market, especially as manufacturers address a slowdown in wholesale and retail demand, local real estate experts like Lewis Goodkin tell GlobeSt.com. While each of the three markets may lose some jobs, investors are unlikely to pull back on plans for future industrial development.
"With a lot of this type of product in the real estate business, particularly when talking about firms looking at their longer-term needs, they're not going to stop everything to accommodate a period of time that may well be gone by the time they're under way in terms of their own activity," says Goodkin, president of Miami-based Goodkin Consulting Corp.
"We are going to have a slowdown in industrial demand because there is going to be a slowdown in employment growth, but it won't be anything substantial," he tells GlobeSt.com
Net absorption rates account for a large part of the continued resiliency in industrial property development in each of the three countries. Last year, about 5.3 million sf was absorbed in Broward, two million sf in Miami-Dade and 2.4 million sf in Palm Beach.
"Absorption is exceeding what is being added by a significant amount," Chris Metzger, senior director in the Fort Lauderdale office of Cushman & Wakefield, tells GlobeSt.com.
"From the developer's perspective, it means there is plenty of additional product to be developed," he says. "I would say most developers are walking carefully right now. They're interested and going forward, but talking conservatively."
Demand for industrial space is considerable, Metzger adds, as distribution companies are looking for temporary space to store accumulating inventories. "There is a lot of sublease space starting to leak into the market, too," he says. If such a trend accelerates, below-market sublease rates could affect the current level of absorption.
"It's happening below the radar screens of the lenders and the developers," Metzger says. "Over the next several months, some of that extra space will come on to the market and have a little bit of an impact."
Asking rents for warehouse-distribution space in Broward remain somewhat below the average found in Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties. Rents for the year ended Dec. 31 averaged $5.82 per sf in Broward, $6.75 per sf in Miami-Dade and $6.29 per sf in Palm Beach.
The average in Miami-Dade is probably still accurate, even though building owners in the heavily industrial district around Miami International Airport pushed rates up last year as they took advantage of new demand from telecommunications and technology companies for space in that market.
"We saw a real aberration in the market, which is what I call the telecom phenomena, where a lot of quasi-developer/investors came into the market and tied up the largest industrial buildings for telecom conversation," Paul N. Isenbergh, a senior director in Cushman & Wakefield's Miami office and an expert on the Miami-Dade industrial market, tells GlobeSt.com.
"It reached even to the point that one major figure in the Airport Industrial Park, the Beacon Centre, stopped entertaining tenant prospects and increased their asking rates by $4," he says. "They have since gone back to being aggressive for the industrial tenant."
It is difficult to imagine rates decreasing any further, Isenbergh notes, because of the limited amount of development space available in the more heavily populated portion of Miami-Dade County. That could exacerbate tenant flight northward to Broward and Palm Beach counties.
"That whole telecom aberration caused us to have very low effective vacancies," Isenbergh adds. "There were multiple tenants pursuing the same space because there was such limited supply. We've had a owner market down here the past three or four years at least."
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