Multifamily--Prospects for this sector are bright, thanks to the growing numbers of echo-boomers who are attracted by the shorter commutes, lower maintenance and the proximity to shopping, restaurants and entertainment. Their parents, the empty-nester, baby boomers, are also boosting this market as they look to cash in on their high-priced houses in exchange for accommodations that free them from having to mow the lawn and worry about replacing the roof or the hot water heater. IRR judges the southern Florida market as strong, along with Atlanta and Phoenix. Austin, while red hot at the moment, may face dangers of overbuilding, a threat that may be wane with the growth of employment and population.
Retail--Coming out of a difficult Christmas season, this sector show signs of softening despite a good start at the beginning of the year and an outstanding fourth quarter in 1999. IRR warns that there may be too many malls, which should give investors caution about moving into this market.
Not along ago the Internet was being touted as the successor to brick and mortar outlets, a threat that seems to have faded now. In fact, some retailers are trying to take jump on the e-commerce bandwagon. For example, Barnes & Noble and the Gap now offer multichannel shopping and Wal-Mart relaunched its Web site not long ago. Overall, the vacancy rate for retail is 7.1%, up slightly from 7.0% last year.
Industrial--This market, now very tight, is expected to remain stable. High-technology firms have suffered setbacks, but biotechnology companies are predicted to keep this sector positive. This industry, which is research intensive, has a strong position in Washington, DC San Diego, Orange County as well as New England.
Also supporting the industrial market are warehouses, which, instead of being used just for storage, are now central to moving goods for just-in-time delivery. At the same time, big-box warehouses are still in demand, although they will have to satisfy client demands for upgraded communications capabilities, trailer storage and automated materials handling, the study finds.
Offices--The Downtown vacancy rate for office space of 7.3% in the top markets. About 79.8 million sf are now in the process of being added to the existing 1.23 billion sf of space. IRR projects it will take a little over three years to balance the supply. San Francisco, Boston, New York, Austin, Seattle and Washington, DC, which account of 46% of the survey's inventory, post a weighted vacancy rate of 3.7%. Yellow caution flags have been issued for eight cities: Los Angeles, Memphis, TN, New Orleans, Kansas City, MO, and Baltimore, MD. Reporting a weighted average vacancy of 17.6%, it is projected they will take more than seven years to come into balance.
Hotels--As the economy slows, the lodging industry is expected to feel the impact. Few projects are expected for be financed in 2001 and RevPAR and occupancy rates are anticipated to fall when new product now in the pipelines comes to market. A positive environment, including the availability of financing and low interest rates over the last four years, encouraged a major construction boom, much of which has yet to deliver. As a result, over the next few years, growth in occupancy rates are likely to be minimal or decline, and make it difficult to maintain rates. The IRR report recommends that developers and lenders move cautiously in this market.
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