The presentation by the National Association of Industrial and Office Properties New York City/Westchester and Fairfield County Chapter featured Nicholas S. Perna, president of Perna Associates and Hugh F. Kelly, CRE, chief economist for Landauer Realty Group, Inc. The session was held at Reckson Associates Realty's 360 Hamilton Ave., building Downtown.
"Are we in a recession, the answer is no. Will we be recession, maybe, but it is less likely than not being in recession," Perna related. He said that while job growth has slowed, the number of job creations is still growing. "You can't have a recession without a decline in jobs."
Perna predicted, "The economy will continue to exhibit symptoms of slow growth. We will pick up a bit the second half of this year and pick up a little bit more as we get into next year and not go into recession. But we're going to feel like we are skating on thin ice and the odds on that are even money."
Perna noted that the economy is in the midst of "an inventory correction," not a recession. He charged that those who have stated the US economy is in recession, such as President George W. Bush, have an agenda that would benefit from having people think a recession is already underway. For example, he stated that the Bush administration could blame former President Bill Clinton for the economic downturn and also garner more support for the president's tax cut plan.
"My forecast is that these counties (Westchester and Fairfield) are pretty much going to mirror what happens nationally," he said. "So the national economy will slow a little bit further and we'll slow a little bit further and then we'll pick up. So we are not likely to decline unless the national economy declines."
Kelly of Landauer agreed, saying, "I don't think we are in a recession nor do I see one in the offing." He charged that continued high US productivity would keep the economy out of recession. Kelly related that in the unlikely event of a recession this year, the commercial office and industrial markets are in much better shape than before the last recession in the mid 1980s.
He related that the office market was overbuilt prior to the last recession that caused huge problems nationwide. In the Westchester-Fairfield area, Kelly noted that the markets "got hammered." If a recession were to take place, he doesn't expect the markets to be hit quite so hard.
Major markets in the Westchester-Fairfield County area have low office availabilities with very little new product on line. The same holds true nationwide. Current office vacancy rates for office space are approximately eight percent and six-and-a-half percent in central business districts.
Specifically, he said that the Manhattan office market is very hot, while some suburban New York City locations are doing well but are lagging in comparison. That may change if office rents continue to escalate in the Big Apple, he said.
"When you see rents at $100 per sf, you will see companies moving to Westchester and Connecticut in droves," Kelly charged. While he saw continued strength in most markets in the Northeast, he singled out Hartford and Bridgeport as areas that will continue to lag in activity.
"I would look for a slowdown in the flex and R&D space," Kelly predicted. He said that would take place due mainly to the problems with dotcom companies and other firms affiliated with the tech-heavy NASDAQ market.
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