"My sense is the real estate markets are still in very good balance from a supply and demand standpoint," John Fowler, executive managing director, tells GlobeSt.com. Of the more than $11 billion, the northeast region and Texas each account for $3 billion of year 2000's business volume. "I am quite optimistic about this year ... I expect we should do that amount and maybe more," Fowler says in a nationwide take about 2001 prospects.
But, he says, trading isn't as easy as in years past, as the industry is well aware. Underwriting will become even more stringent, Fowler predicts. Lenders' belt-tightening now requires meeting the full spectrum of criteria: significant preleasing, equity and guarantees. Gone are the days, at least for now, that a project can fly on just one financing requirement. "I don't think it's necessarily bad," assesses Fowler. Given today's economy, he says "more is better."
Markets, save for Boston, Washington, DC, San Francisco/Silicon Valley and New York, had experienced their widest bid/ask gap between buyers and sellers in a decade, according to Mark Gibson, another of the firm's executive managing directors. There is a shifting mood on equity capital and the benefactors will be the southeast, southwest and non-coastal western states, he says.
Holliday Fenoglio Fowler's year 2000 financing volume breaks down to more than $9 billion in debt transactions, including $4.9 billion in fixed-rate product; $3.67 billion in adjustable rate financing; and $1.19 billion in construction loans. Investment sales had come in at $1.5 billion whereas joint ventures, mezzanine and participating loan financing had accounted for about $600 million in the year-end tally. In a sector breakdown, office transactions had accounted for about $5.8 billion or 52, 509,886 sf; multifamily, about $1.7 billion, equating to 40,641 units; retail, about $1.9 billion, translating to 25,167,188 sf; industrial, a tad over $706.8 million for 20,130,316 sf; hotel, about $288.1 million for 3,784 rooms; and miscellaneous, about $708.5 million.
Another interest rate cut and consumer tax cut should be the panacea for the nation's flagging economy. "It will have a positive effect on consumer confidence and business expansion," says Fowler. "I believe whatever recession we have is going to be short-lived because the fundamentals we hare are strong." And, he believes, these first three quarters "will remain robust." What lies beyond that is simply too soon to tell, he says.
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