The greatest defense against the dot-com shakeout according the Greg B. Taubin, associate managing director of Julien J. Studley's Midtown office, and Greg Popkin, executive director of Insignia/ESG's Property Management Division, based here, for property owners has been the deposit. "Most owners secured large security deposits, paying two years in advance," Popkin says.
"Owners protected themselves through lease liability, securing large security deposits, usually in the form of a letter of credit for one to three years worth of rent," adds Taubin. "Many owners had a recapture clause put into the lease agreement in case a tenant sought to sublease. Subleases are generally discounted, but owners find they can do better themselves."
Taubin says a recent deal he led indicates the current environment. Snickelways, a New Economy service provider, wanted to surrender its 13,915 sf office on the 36th floor of 1 Liberty Plaza in the Financial District. Tokio Re Insurance owned it and was looking to recapture it. A sublease was arranged with Headstrong, another New Economy business, which currently has space on the same floor and was looking to expand. Headstrong is now seeking to sublease its current space, a total of 4,000 sf. Taubin represented all of the parties involved in the Snickelways deal, which took two months to complete.
"With vacancy rates in this city of 3% to 5% and even similar rates in the suburbs here," Popkin says, "he return of space is still not a blow to the market. It may cool the rental rates a little, but we're still not seeing significant reductions.
"The fringe is the first to be impacted," Popkin adds. "It's still a matter of location, location, location. We'll still see a continued trend of outplacement of back office because companies can move it to $30 per sf space in the suburbs." Popkin says traditional businesses are still going forward with plans, but acknowledges companies are tightening their belts. "Brokers have to work a little bit harder," he says.
"Most of the subleasing is in locations such as the West Side, some Downtown and even in the West 30s," Taubin says. "These will likely revert to past rental rates." He notes that traditional businesses are not generally interested in dot-com space, adding that throughout the market people are "putting plans on hold and everyone's just waiting to see.
"It's not like it was during the dot-com craze," he says. "It's scary. There's a plethora of dot-com space coming back. Sometimes you can go into dot-com space and it's like a ghost town with pool tables still set up and kitchens still stocked."
Both Popkin and Taubin note it is difficult to quantify the impact. Popkin says the dot-com leases were an insignificant minority, but notes Insignia/ESG did 65 technology deals in 2000 for 2.14 million sf and in the first two months of 2001 (as of March 1) has done six deals for 100,000 sf of space.
When asked if they had seen brokers lining up tenants for properties, Popkin notes, "I don't think brokers are long-sighted in that regard. They're not focusing on years down the road."
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