The potential increase is up drastically from January, when the BPA said wholesale rates could rise 60% on average for the next five years, with a first year increase of 95% a possibility. "Recent developments in the market now require a first-year increase of 250 percent or more, absent vigorous efforts to reduce demand," says Steve Wright, acting BPA administrator. "This could double the retail rates of many Northwest consumers."

Such increase will have major economic consequences, says Wright. "Already some businesses have closed and people are out of work due to high energy costs," he says. "Such an increase portends vast economic troubles--more businesses closing their doors and more lost jobs. Those with lower incomes would suffer disproportionately."

The situation is being exacerbated by the drought that will leave the region short of electricity this summer and winter. Coupled with the underlying energy shortage, the BPA says there will be problems meeting demand for several years until new power plants, power lines and conservation can be brought on line.