"Most of this space is from tech firms," notes Coyle. "But other firms like Cabot and Putnam [a financial services company] will probably be giving up space and that could impact the market." While most of the space from high-tech firms that is going on the market is sub-lease space--which usually does not impact the market--much of the square footage being put up now have long lease terms left.

The flip side is that these leases can present an opportunity to property owners if they were signed before the rates skyrocketed. "If these leases were signed two years ago when rates were lower," says Coyle, "owners can, in some cases, make money." But, continues Coyle, if the leases were signed in the fourth quarter of last year, rents are going to be lower now. "Highest class A space rents are going down," he points out. "Many folks are waiting to see how low they will go."

Coyle maintains though that the fundamentals of the Boston market are still in good shape despite the negative news. "Even if the vacancy rates goes up to 6% to 7%, its still a good market," he says. "Brokerage firms here understated how low the vacancies went." Cambridge, Coyle says, was tight but it never got to 0% vacancy like everyone said. That market is now the hardest hit by the high-tech fallout but even there, says Coyle, they will be able to withstand vacancy rates that go up to 11%. "Rental rates have come back from the peak but they are still relatively high," he points out.

The good news in all this, says Coyle, is that in this cycle, unlike in the late 1980s, people didn't capitalize on the "bubble" rents. "They didn't put it into the values of the buildings, which means that rents will fall back to levels that can still support the value of the buildings," he says. Also now, unlike then, the market is reacting to the lower rents and there is better market information. "There is more anticipation of a slowdown now," he says. "People had no information then. We have more sophisticated investors now and they are better equipped."

All this, according to Coyle, translates into a softer landing and an easier recovery. "We won't have the bounceback of the mid-1990s," he says. "I think we'll see some easing and give back of space through the summer but then we'll slowly recover."

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