That edge is apparent in a new market survey Cushman & Wakefield of Florida Inc. just published for the first quarter ended March 31, which reported increases in vacancy rates in each of Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties.
Delivery of new product accounts for much of the increase in vacancy rates over the first quarter. Market experts consider the upward movement as nothing more than a blip on a long-term trend that still favors property owners and investors.
"Broward is just strong in all sectors," Chris Metzger, a senior director in the Fort Lauderdale offices of Cushman & Wakefield, tells GlobeSt.com. "We've noticed a big flattening out of the market in February. In March, we saw everybody come back to the market."
He says, "We had leases out for signature that people were sitting on. They're finally coming out of the woodwork. We've seen a lot more activity in just the last couple of weeks in March."
All three markets experienced increases in total inventory and year-to-date leasing activity, though the delivery of new product apparently skewed figures for net absorption. Only Broward showed a positive increase in net absorption, with Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties posting negative increases.
"Yeah, we had an increase in vacancy and net absorption, but we had nearly double the leasing activity over the first quarter last year," Walter Byrd, a senior director in the Miami offices of Cushman & Wakefield, tells GlobeSt.com.
On the other hand, one long-term variable still weighs heavily in favor of property owners. Available land for industrial-warehouse development is disappearing from years of growth and development especially in Broward and Miami-Dade counties.
"We're running out of dirt," Metzger says. "Dirt is diminishing rapidly, and it's causing problems for those in the build-to-suit markets."
He notes, "It's going to force people into other submarkets where they're going to have to start retrofitting buildings."
While retrofitting may become more plausible in Broward, the cost to demolish and redevelop is still too prohibitive in Miami-Dade.
"I don't think you're at the threshold where you can buy those buildings and tear them down," Paul N. Isenbergh, a senior director in the Miami offices of Cushman & Wakefield, tells GlobeSt.com.
One of the factors working against such redevelopment strategies--at least in the short-term--is the availability of newly vacant leaseable space that property owners want to fill quickly, Isenbergh says.
In one instance, a property owner offered brokers a short-term lease on a new Porsche automobile as an incentive for finding a tenant--in addition to the contracted commission.
"I think you're gong to see over the next two to three quarters more aggressive landlords ready to lease vacancies quickly, which will result in lower rates and or additional concessions for quality tenants," Isenbergh says.
"Over the long term, I see rates increasing primarily due to the lack of land for new product," he says. "Unless there is tremendous economic upheaval, especially in Latin America, Miami will continue to be the prime regional location for warehouse distribution trade to Latin America and the Caribbean."
Survey results in the first-quarter report:
Broward County inventory--76.8 million sf; overall vacancy rate--7.7%; year-to-date leasing--903,364 sf; under construction--1.5 million sf; year-to-date net absorption--12,986 sf; asking rents--$9.45-sf, net office/service; $6.29-sf net warehouse/distribution.
Miami-Dade inventory--146.8 million sf;overall vacancy--7.5%; year-to-date leasing--2.44 million sf; under construction--3.7 million sf; year-to-date net absorption--net loss of 304,568 sf; asking rents--$11.98-sf, net office/service; $6.72-sf net warehouse/distribution.
Palm Beach inventory--39.7 million sf; overall vacancy--6.4%; year-to-date leasing--345,085 sf;under construction--704,419 sf; year-to-date net absorption--net loss of 336,042 sf; asking rents--$11.13-sf, net office/service; $6.18-sf net warehouse/distribution
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