Mike Scott, who teams with Patty Dupre to form one of the region's most respected apartment consulting firms, said the cost of running an apartment in King, Snohomish or Pierce counties 10 years ago was $2,384. In absolute dollars, repairs and maintenance climbed the most in the past decade, followed by capital expenses, utilities and real estate taxes.

"Even though we expect the rate of expense increase to moderate, there are caution signals,'' Scott said. "These include potential increases depending on government action on real estate taxes and utilities. In addition, there are property and consumer demands pushing repairs and capital expenses, and tectonic plate action driving insurance costs higher for the cautious.''

Scott said his expense model forecasts the rate of cost increase will slow to 3.7% in 2001, yet pick up next year to 4.2%. "The model is not perfect, but it has years of expense statements backing it up,'' Scott said. "It's a good tool. It suggests costs will climb to $3,754 a unit this year and $3,911 a unit in 2002, including capital expenses,'' Scott said.

What have concerned investors the most are the unknowns behind utilities. Investors are scrambling to control costs, particularly water and sewer charges, which are climbing at double-digit rates in some communities. The consumer already pays most of the cost of electricity, Scott said, but their budget capacity could ultimately be a rent issue.

The Puget Sound area is entering an environment where slower rent increases will make it more difficult to boost net operating income as much as investors have enjoyed in the recent years. That makes forecasting, and the resulting planning and control, more difficult for investors and developers.

The good-news, bad-news message of taxes could come back to haunt, according to The Apartment Advisor. The typical real estate bill increased from $458 in 1990 to $612 a unit last year. This slow rate of increase compared to most other line-item expenses is due to assessed values falling behind the market. When the assessor catches up, so will taxes.