'While there has already been a decline in performance for smaller, rural establishments, which are highly dependent on tourism, the impact of foot and mouth in UK and the Netherlands may not be fully reflected in overall market performance until April and May,' says Julia Felton, head of Hospitality Knowledge Services at Andersen.
Whether US tourists continue to stay away from the UK and mainland Europe will depend as much on the overall state of the US economy as to effective publicity that there are no health and safety issues following the foot and mouth outbreak.
With the US dollar strong relative to both sterling and the euro, and transatlantic fares some of the cheapest in years, Europe should be a popular destination for US vacationers. Instead, many major European cities experienced a decline in occupancy during March, which Andersen has pointed to as the first sign of the impact of the slowdown in the US economy plus an apparent misunderstanding of the implications of foot and mouth.
'The next few months will be crucial,' says Fenton, 'as early indications are that the industry may have been hit harder in April due to foot and mouth curtailing some of the typical Easter demand, particularly in the UK. May will also be a key indicator for hoteliers as to what the year holds.
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