FPD Savills commissioned the economists at Business Strategies to model the impact on the UK economy of the US achieving zero economic growth in 2001, with a rebound to 2.4% growth in 2002. They concluded that GDP growth in the UK could slow temporarily to 1.2% next year, before rebounding strongly.

Applying this to the property market, 1.3% of jobs in the financial and business services sector could be lost, and according to FPD Savills' Head of research Mat Oakley this has negative implications for occupier demand in the City. 'I certainly don't expect to see a repeat of last year's 27% rental growth,' he said. 'But over the next five years I do expect offices to be the best performing property sector.'

Equally, there are already signs that US-owned TMT companies are cutting back their requirements in the M4 corridor. On the other hand, the markets in Scotland and Northern Ireland, with their greater reliance on manufacturing, will prove more resilient, Oakley forecast.

And overall, Oakley is taking a sanguine view. 'We don't appear to be teetering on the brink of a property downturn,' he said. A number of factors mean that UK property is better equipped to withstand economic shocks now than during the last property cycle. 'Property is much more resilient this time,' said Oakley. 'There is no area where we can point to a speculative development boom.'

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