Those are the findings of the just-released Urban Land Supply Study-2001. The conclusions are generalized for the region based on a study of five fast-growingcommunities in the seven-county metro area, including Lakeville, Maple Grove, Plymouth, Shakopee and Woodbury, who together are forecasted to account formore than 20% of the region's growth in households to 2020.
Here is the study's assessment of these five major Twin Cities growth markets:
* Lakeville faces a growth challenge in the short term due to the limited wastewater treatment capacity at the Empire treatment plant. The Council expects toexpand capacity on an interim basis by the end of 2004, and anticipates having a long-term solution in place by 2005. If this is not done, Lakeville's development will be limited to two to three years, based on city estimates.
* Woodbury, one of the fastest growing communities in the country, recently decided to adopt a slower growth rate, and has limited housing permits to 600 units ayear -- less than half of the 1,300 units a year it has done over the last five years. Although the area's sewer capacity is in the process of being expanded, which will be completed by 2003, growth may have to go elsewhere if demand keeps up at the present rate.
* Maple Grove has established a five-year staging plan for development, a strategy that allows the city to limit building permits in some of its staging areas while considering transportation impacts. An unintended consequence may be higher land prices. A considerable amount of the city's residential development will occur in the gravel mining area in the northeast part of the city -- land not immediately available for development.
* Shakopee's sewer capacity is a key development constraint, affecting more than 300 acres. The city is in negotiations with a major landowner to acquire the needed easements to provide capacity.
* Plymouth is approaching full development. Due to local concerns, the city government has decided, for the time being, not to extend public services into northwestern Plymouth, where the majority of land yet to be developed is located. The city, however, is alsoencouraging higher residential densities in those areas that are designated for future urbanization.
Despite identified development constraints, nearly 7,000 housing units are planned within those five communities and within the existing 2000 MUSA.
"The study points to some short-term capacity issues that must be addressed to accommodate growth in the region," says Caren Dewar, Metropolitan CouncilCommunity Development Director. "In some cases they can, and are, being addressed regionally, and in some cases, the issues are, and should be, local," Rick Packer, chair of the BATC public policy committee, adds "the findings support the builders' conviction that the region is experiencing a tight land supply that we believe puts upward pressure on land and home prices. The study also speaks to the need to reevaluate the tools that are used to shape growth in the Twin Cities."
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