There are some very positive signs at the mid-year point--population gains are higher than expected and personal income is very strong. But, there are also negative indicators, with job growth lower than projected, according to data published in the summer issue of Arizona's Economy, put out by the Eller College of Business and Public Administration at the University of Arizona.

"We still expect below-average growth, but no recession, for the foreseeable future, as the 'bubble' economy of a year ago deflates and things get back to 'normal,'" says Marshall Vest, forecasting project director.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis' latest numbers show personal income up by 9.1% in 2000, a higher gain than most economic predictions. Forecasters have called for a 6.5% gain in personal income for this year and a 5.9% increase in 2002.