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US Recession Appears Likely, UCLA Says

LOS ANGELES-The university's Anderson School of Business, whose reports have been accurate in the past, pegs chances of a full-blown recession at 80% over the next few quarters.

By David W. Myers | Updated on June 29, 2001

LOS ANGELES-The US will almost undoubtedly fall into a recession later this year or in early 2002, a widely anticipated report by UCLA forecasters says, though Southern California’s economy won’t suffer as badly as the nation’s as a whole.

The report was issued by researchers at the university’s Anderson School of Business, which has established a reputation for being among the most accurate forecasting groups in the country. The study also marks the first time a major forecast group has said California’s power crisis will indeed push the entire US into recession.

“We still expect sluggish growth through the rest of the year and two quarters of negative growth commencing no later than (the first quarter) of 2002,” says Edward E. Leamer, the economist who leads the forecasting team. “Although the interest- and tax-rate cuts may help the train move faster, there is no light at the end of the tunnel.”

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