In his mid-year Austin Area Office Market Survey, Heimsath, founder and president of Capitol Market Research Inc., pegs the overall office occupancy rate at 84.9% at the end of June, off from 95% in December. The 85% includes the occupancy from direct leases and subleases. By itself, the direct lease occupancy is 92.4%, down from 95.5% in December.

Heimsath's is one of several reports that will assess the Austin real estate market at mid-2001. NAI/Commercial Industrial Properties is due to release its report soon and Angelou Economic Advisors will issue a revised forecast July 25.

The short-term forecast doesn't require a crystal ball or algorithms. All one has to do is count the number of companies that have gone out of business or cut jobs and look at the number of buildings under construction nearing delivery.