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No Market Recovery Until 2004, Researcher Says

NEW YORK CITY-A jolting study on real estate trends may finally provide perplexed industry-watchers with the answers they've been pining for. In an exclusive interview, its author explains his warts-and-all economic analysis.

By Glen Thompson | Updated on August 05, 2001

NEW YORK CITY-Don’t look for the current market slump to turn around before 2004, according to a landmark study released last week on real estate cycles. Its author says the work constitutes a jolting realization by industry experts that the nation is in recession, that the industry’s relationship to the overall economy has changed dramatically and permanently, and that good times are not just around the corner.

According to PricewaterhouseCoopers’ Real Estate Value Cycles report, most markets will continue to contract for at least the next 18 months with a turnaround projected for 2004. “I’ve noticed that realizations about the slowing economy suddenly seem more definite,” says the study’s author, Peter Korpacz, in an exclusive interview with GlobeSt.com.

The director of PricewaterhouseCoopers Financial Advisory Services’ Global Strategic Real Estate Research Group notes that “leasing has almost stopped, rents are going down. This is not going to right itself by the end of the year. When you go from 5% GDP growth to 0.7%, we’re in a recession.”

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