The forecast is based on an index of leading economic indicators compiled by the Cal State Fullerton Institute for Economic and Environmental Studies. The Southern California index rose 0.86% in the latest quarter from the previous quarter, the school says, its biggest gain in a year.

The national index rose only 0.37%. That means the US economy in general will likely poke along over the next six months, but that a full-blown recession will probably be averted.

"The current weak growth in the US economy is likely to continue for the next quarter or two, whereas the prediction for the Southern California region is for moderate growth," says Adrian Fleissig, the Cal State Fullerton economist who prepared the report.

The Southland index is designed to forecast growth for Orange, San Diego, LA, Imperial, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties. It is based on several factors that point to future economic activity, from interest rates and the US money supply to employment trends and permits for new construction.