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Earlybird Forecast Predicts Decline

SACRAMENTO-The brokerages' annual consensus prediction reveals that while the office, industrial and retail markets are in for a slump, it may turn out better than expected.

By Michelle Savage | Updated on October 30, 2001

SACRAMENTO-The latest consensus among Sacramento’s biggest commercial real estate agencies reveals that the construction of office, warehouse and retail properties may experience a great decline.

The 2002 Earlybird Economic Forecast is sponsored by the Business Journal. Bob Dean of Grubb & Ellis compiled four brokerages’ data into a consensus. The real estate firms included were Grubb & Ellis, CB Richard Ellis, Colliers International and Cornish & Carey/Oncor International.

The consensus predicts that the largest slowdown is expected in office construction, which may drop 79 %. Industrial construction is expected to slip 57 %, and retail construction may fall 28 %, according to the report.The brokerages say that office absorption, which is the amount of newly leased space, will fall about 36%, and industrial volume will drop 21%. Retail should rise about 1.6%.

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