But new research from Jones Lang LaSalle concludes that it is only now that the full impact of the euro will be felt. Researchers Jeremy Kelly and Ben Sanderson believe that over the longer term EMU will impact fundamentally on occupier requirements, investment conditions and market practice.
In the short term they see a number of practical problems to be overcome, not least the matter of converting rents from the old domestic currencies to the euro. In Germany, for instance, the conversion rate is DM1.956 = €1. For the purposes of buying a cup of coffee a rough rate of DM2 = €1 works perfectly well, but converting the rent on a massive office building has to be done more accurately.
Prime Berlin offices currently fetch DM 60 per sq per month, which could equate to €30 per sq m per month. But applying the official conversion rate produces €30.67 per sq m per month, and JLL warns that there will be a temptation to round this up to €31 per sq m per month, meaning occupiers face a 3.3% hike in property costs overnight.
However, in a weakening property market landlords may not be able to justify such a move, and may instead opt to round down to €30 per sq m per month, leading to an effective fall in rents of 2.2% overnight. On balance JLL expects office rents across the euro zone to fall by an average of 0.9% because of the arrival of the euro.
The JLL research also highlights wider barriers to the emergence of a common European property market. One of the main reasons the 12 euro zone governments agreed to adopt the currency is because it will bring price transparency. For example, consumers will know immediately if cars are cheaper in Belgium than in France and will change their shopping habits accordingly, helping to drive inflation out of the economic system. But there is no uniform way of quoting property costs. In Germany and Spain, rents are quoted in € per sq m per month, while in France, Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands they are quoted in € per sq m per year. JLL believes a uniform system will emerge, but it is anyone's guess which of the two conventions will be adopted.
And a further complication is the fact that three important EU markets--Denmark, Sweden and the UK--have opted out of the process. In all three the adoption of the euro is seen as the biggest political issue facing the governments, but opinion polls are already moving in favour of membership. And as voters become familiar with the new currency on their business and leisure trips it becomes increasingly likely that all three will eventually join.
'In the UK it is still common to hear talk of "pounds per square foot". It will take time, but one of the most significant impacts of the events of 1 January 2002 could be that it will ultimately sound the death knell for the "pounds per square foot" tendency in the London market,' say the JLL researchers. 'We will know the UK is ready to sign up for the single currency when the leasing agents in the City are talking in euros per square metre.'
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