That's the instant outlook James M. Murphy, chairman of the 2,800-member Mortgage Bankers Association of America, presented to 4,000 attendees Monday (Feb. 4) at the opening of the 12th annual, four-day commercial real estate finance/multifamily housing convention at the Walt Disney World Dolphin Hotel.

The convention is the largest of its kind in the nation, Murphy said.

"We have pinpointed a new area of business opportunity upon which we will focus this year--international markets," the banker said. Murphy is chairman/CEO of Boston-based New England Realty Resources LLC.

To set up strategies for the new anticipated business, MBA has organized a Global Commercial Mortgage Markets Summit for May 6-7 in Toronto. "Our financial system is the envy of the world and MBA is going to promote the roles that each of you play in making our system great," Murphy said.

Despite the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, "capital is flowing freely into American real estate from around the globe," the banker said. "There are neither border checks, nor INS crackdowns when it comes to international money moving into U.S. real estate."

Murphy told colleagues, "Our industry has rebounded impressively from that brutal blow (of 9-11). The steadiness of our business in these unsteady times has proven once again we are bedrock for this economy."

The Boston executive said the life insurance, banking and credit industries are "thriving" and "the outlook for our industry is good--but guarded." He told attendees the 9-11 attacks taught the mortgage banking industry "the world is a place full of harsh new risks."

Murphy said, "We learned that we are more than just spectators to a world where terror can penetrate our very borders. Yet we are an industry of risk-takers and risk-managers."

He said, "This new dimension of risk does not scare us. We will apply the same tools we always have to measure, manage, price contain--and insure--those new risks."

And, he added, "Where we don't have the tools we need, MBA will be there to help us get them."

Murphy reminded his colleagues of the growing importance of proper insurance coverage for commercial real estate.

"As some of you know, many of the property and casualty insurers have written terrorism coverage out of their policies," he said. "Now, at first blush, you may not think that is a big deal. However, I can tell you, the capital markets think it is a big deal, and the ramifications to all of us here will be dramatic and serious."

Murphy said executives at the largest insurance houses and Wall Street rating agencies are examining risk elements in all real estate portfolios more closely than they ever have and asking questions about the measure of risk involved on various assets.

"The answers will impact CMBS spreads and capital availability," Murphy told attendees. "MBA and the entire real estate community believe the government must help in the short term until the private sector can perform proper risk assessment and provide underwriting guidelines for coverage."

To get government's attention, the banker urged colleagues to monitor the political scene more closely.

"If you're in business today and you're not involved in politics, your future is limited, because--believe me--politicians impact you every day," Murphy said. "So get involved and, most importantly, contribute to MORPAC," the industry's political action committee.

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