In his presentation, Kagann noted that the physical and economic damage caused by the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center differs from the fallout caused by natural disasters such as the earthquakes in California or hurricanes in Florida.

He charged that the economic recoveries from the earthquarkes in San Francisco (1989) and Northridge (1994) and from the devastation caused by Hurricane Andrew (1992) in the Miami area were led by the massive efforts waged to build new housing damaged in the natural disasters.

However, while he noted that the national economy may have technically been in recession prior to Sept. 11, "The event in New York City triggered the recession." A total of 100,000 jobs disappeared, or about three percent of the New York City workforce, he said.

After Sept. 11, Kagann shared that he talked with economists versed in "disaster economics" and learned that after a traumatic event such as a hurricane or earthquake, the affected region could expect: job losses, disruption of business and personal lives; dramatic decline in travel in and out of the affected area; hotel occupancy and retail sales decline as well as a steep drop in attendance in entertainment-related venues. Also, steep declines in government revenues. New York City has seen all these negative trends come to pass since 9-11, he said.

However, where the city differs from those areas is that since Sept. 11, the Big Apple's major industries: tourism, finance (Wall Street) and media (advertising) have fallen on hard times.

While the rebuilding effort at Ground Zero will provide a boost to the economy, for a true recovery to take hold in Manhattan, those three industries must rebound and return to pre-Sept. 11 activity, Kagann shared.

Kagann was critical of the outgoing New York City Council's decision this past January to raise personal income taxes in the city. He said that any further tax increases or reinstating the commuter tax into Manhattan that has been discussed of late will also cause significant economic fallout.

He added that in light of the fact that there is concern that some major businesses may be leaving the city, now is not the time to be raising the cost of living and the cost of doing business in New York City.