Throughout 2001, the available supply space increased by an average 3 million sf per month. At the end of 2001, Silicon Valley has 48.1 million sf available, an increase of more than 274% from the previous year. The overall availability rate had skyrocketed from 4.55% to a still-rising 15.95%.
"Simply stated, 2000 was the biggest year on record for absorption activity and 2001 was the worst," says Jeff Frederick of Colliers. "One thing that seems certain is that Silicon Valley is going to need more than a modest economic recovery to significantly change the current state of the commercial real estate marketplace."
"Thanks to a surge in fourth-quarter activity, 2001 gross absorption finished the year at 24.06 million square feet," Fredericks adds. "That figure is consistent with gross absorption levels experienced between 1996-1998. Some of the activity that we will see in 2002 may come as a result of improved economic conditions later in the year. With some modest signs of a recovery in the making, that would be great news for Silicon Valley."
Broker Craig Fordyce spoke at the conference, as well, saying that landlords were going to have to find new strategies in order to compete in today's office & R&D market. "Markets like Mountain View and Palo Alto are no longer immune to competition from San Jose and Santa Clara," says Fordyce. "This is opposed to the extreme low vacancy situation where geography converges, as tenants must search for available space in broader areas."
Fordyce lists three strategies being used today to compete in this market. One: don't mess around. Get your space leased today. Two: design creative lease structures, using free rent, lower rent in the first part of the lease term and tenant improvements. Three: market the property at what was underwritten in the year 2000 purchase of the asset using the financial hurdles from the underwriting.
"The first two strategies are working to varying degrees currently and the third is not," Fordyce says. "Tenants are in an enviable position today to take advantage of this marketplace. This is an excellent time for them to secure long-term leases in submarkets of choice to drive their businesses."
Another broker at the conference pinpointed three keys to biotechnology companies relocating in particular areas, saying that landlords would need to make significant tenant improvements to current R&D facilities to attract these companies.
Broker Rob Shannon says that the companies look at the proximity to research universities, the proximity to a scientific labor base after the incubation period, and the ability to cluster with other biotech companies. "It is a very thin tenant segment and location barriers still exist in Silicon Valley," Shannon adds. "However, lenders are growing more comfortable with this industry and appropriate underwriting criteria. Add to that the clustering factor and some landlords will be able to do very well in the biotech industry."
Broker Tom Loeswick commented that 2001 saw $817 million in investment activity in Silicon Valley, down from more than $2 billion in 2000 and $1.8 billion in 1999. "We are continuing to see strong interest for stabilized assets with profitable tenants," says Loeswick. "However, considering the start-up nature of many of the Valley's tenants and the current vacancy rates, we expect that there will be few opportunities that meet this demand."
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