Pauls, who put the Denver Technological Center on the map as the premier office park in the metro owner and is the developer with Paul Powers of the 1,200-acre Gateway Park, didn't sugarcoat the market. His company, the Pauls Corp., also has projects underway or on the drawing board from Las Vegas to Houston to Calgary.
''So what predictions can be made today?'' Pauls asked, after discussing the rise and fall of the commercial real estate market in the 1980s and 1990s. ''It is my view that today rents and resulting capital values will continue trading downward until there is evidence of new demand for space.
"Where does new demand come from? It comes from new jobs," Pauls adds. "In its simplest form, the commercial real estate business is a head count business. The more people employed, the more commercial space is required. In my opinion, it will take new job growth for values to return to levels seen a few short years ago. I do believe that low interest rates and substantial liquidity in the markets will help cushion values until demand for space returns.''
Pauls says not everyone in the industry will suffer equally.
''Those of us who are developers and building owners will be hurt the most,'' Pauls says. ''There wil be little or new building. Existing land and buildings will be hard to sell. Falling rents and rising vacancies will squeeze cash flows from existing buildings.''
But those in the leasing and brokerage business may well have new opportunities, he says.
''Because there will be plenty of options for tenants and interested buyers, there should be deals,'' Pauls says. ''As usual, the brokers will continue to make money through these hard times and as usual, we developers will be happy to pay them.''
Other honored by NAIOP:
* Kim Koehn, of Equity Office, 2001 Member of the Year.
* Barry Dorfman, president of the Staubach Co. in Denver, Office Leasing Broker of the Year, with 36 leases for 3 million sf valued at $514 million.
* Mike Camp, CB Richard Ellis, Industrial Broker of the Year for 44 leases for 2.1 million sf valued at $201 million. He also sold 19 acres.
* Dave Tilton, Frederick Ross Co., Investment Broker of the Year, sold 836,728 sf in buildings for a total of $113 million and leased 194,945 sf.
* Dean Insalaco, CB Richard Ellis, Retail Broker of the Year, leased 232,776 sf in 37 leases, sold 10 properties and 24 acres.
* Research Corporate Center by DPC was the Office Development of the Year (less than 100,000 sf).* Continuum for 16 Market Square for Office Development of the Year (more than 100,000 sf).
* The Neenan Co. for its Flextronics International building for Industrial Development of the Year.
* Westmoor Technology Center by Westfield Development, Business Park of the Year.
* Shea Properties, Owner/Developer of the Year.
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