"We see new openings continuing to decline for the next five years," says a spokesperson for Lodging Econometrics. Performance in the top 25 US markets will drive the recovery, although Houston; Los Angeles; and Norfolk, VA are the only cities predicted to exceed operating expectations. According to the report, "The dramatic falloff in demand in the top 25 from unsustainable highs is the major reason why the overall lodging recovery is apt to be slow and moderate."

The decelerated pace of both lending for new construction/transaction sales and mezzanine financing for large developments will persist over the next 18 months, causing new openings, project cancellations and postponements to increasingly outpace new project announcements, according to the report.

The next year and a half will therefore be a buyer's market, as many companies push to liquidate assets in the recessionary environment. Despite parallels between current lodging trends and those of the last decade, the report claims that the banking and oversupply problems that plagued the recovery will not hamper the current climate. In addition, companies have invested greater equity in lodging assets versus that period, providing a greater economic cushion.