The Seattle-based appraiser/market analyst says Downtown Seattle is suffering through the aftermath of what he says those in the local industry are calling "The Perfect Storm." Just as the massive weather phenomenon that hit the Eastern seaboard in the early 1990's, O'Connor says, "All the right forces came together," referring to the dot-com implosion followed by the horrific events of September 11. "It was an issue of timing," he says. "And, bang, 1,000 to 1,500 units came online right when everything turned upside-down."

O'Connor tells GlobeSt.com, "I've been following the Downtown apartment market for 15 years, and I've never seen vacancy here over 5%." But with a glut of supply, he says occupancy isn't what it used to be. Preliminary results from market studies his firm is now conducting indicate the rate is currently about 13%.

Unfortunately, O'Connor offers, this is merely the eye of the storm. "The truth is, the apartment market in downtown is bad, and vacancies could go to 15% to 17% by mid-summer." Offering some consolation, the consultant says light should then begin filtering into the tunnel. "The middle of the year should mark the bottom of the trough. Then things should start improving in the second half of the year."