Wyss predicted a stock market rebound soon, a general indicator of economic recovery. "I see a Q1 growth rate of 5% to 5.5% this year," he said. However, the upswing will be modest at best. Traditionally, Wyss noted, recovery after a bull market recession remains horizontal for several years. "If there are 7% returns over the next 10 years, I'll be happy," he said.
Wyss' predictions echoed the tentative market outlook of a REIT Symposium panel last week. Click on: REIT Equity May Top $10B This Year, Despite Lukewarm Wall Street Interest ).
President of US operations for Cushman & Wakefield Bruce E. Mosler concurred with Wyss' projections, noting that sublease space will reign in NY for a majority of this year. Mosler claimed about one third of all available space in the city now is sublet. "Sublet space is going to drive our market for at least the next six months," he said. "After that, we'll start to see some real absorption."
Steven Berliner, executive director of Insignia/ESG confirmed Mosler's estimates on the heft sublease space will carry in the city's vacancy recovery. "It's amazing that right now, over 50% of all space online is sublet," said Berliner. "The last quarter of this year is going to see some big activity in this city."
Not all panel members were quite so optimistic. "I don't think that the sublease market is going to drive the recovery in New York," Kent M. Swig, co-chairman of Brown Harris Stevens tells GlobeSt.com. "It will be a major factor in determining vacancy rates in commercial leasing, however."
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