In Portland, there's 1.4 million sf of sublease space, which is equal to just last year's construction deliveries and constitutes 19.7% of total available space in the market, according to the local Grubb & Ellis office. If that sounds good compared to the national numbers, it sounds fabulous compared to other West Coast markets like San Jose, San Francisco and Seattle, where sublease space represents as much as 40% of all available space in those markets.

That's where the good news ends, however, because when Portland's direct vacancies are included and put up against the region's average net absorption, there's more than four years of overhang--not counting new deliveries.

All told, Portland currently has 5.5 million sf of vacant space on the market. Average net absorption over the past five years has been 1.2 million sf. By that math, there's 4.6 years worth of vacant space on the market. Factor in new construction deliveries over the next four years and an expected second wave of cutbacks by corporate America and it's going to take sustained above-average absorption for several years to soak up the excess supply.

All this does not bode well for the timing of four planned Downtown office towers for which brokers are currently seeking prelease commitments so their developers can take to the bank in order to obtain a construction loan.

The four projects-- Block 38 (400,000 sf), 100 Columbia (315,000 sf), Two Main Place (300,000 sf) and One Waterfront Place (235,000 sf)--total 1.4 million sf. Each of the projects would likely need to be at least 50% preleased to obtain a construction loan, and that seems a near impossible task these days as potential tenants, looking to stand pat on occupancy costs during the economic storm, are finding the sweetest deals with their existing landlords.

Continue Reading for Free

Register and gain access to:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.