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National Industrial Forecast: 2 More Quarters of Positive Net Absorption

SAN FRANCISCO-AMB's forecasts 43 million sf of positive net absorption in the U.S. for fourth quarter 2002, and then 1 million sf in the first quarter of 2003. In the third quarter of 2002, ended Sept. 30, Torto Wheaton Research reported 14.3 million sf of positive net absorption. The previous six quarters were negative.

By Brian K. Miller | Updated on November 01, 2002

SAN FRANCISCO-Using a model comprised of the Federal Reserve Board’s manufacturing output data and a proprietary algorithm, San Francisco-based industrial REIT AMB Property Corp. is predicting that the positive net absorption that occurred in the third quarter nationally will continue for two more quarters.

AMB’s forecasts 43 million sf of positive net absorption in the U.S. for fourth quarter 2002. In the third quarter, ended Sept. 30, there was 14.3 million sf of positive net absorption, according to Torto Wheaton Research.

The first quarter of 2003 will be positive as well, according to the forecast, but not by much. Net absorption of less than 1 million sf is projected during the first quarter of 2003.

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