While these industry experts, representing all five sectors of real estate, disagreed on how gradual the turnaround would be, they all concurred that 2004 will most likely be the magic year.
"In the next 12 months, our country will grow over 1.5 million jobs," said Hugh Kelly of New York University. Admittedly optimistic, this multifamily expert opined that, "Once the recovery starts, it will accelerate quickly."
In terms of apartment growth, Kelly added that a comeback is already underway. In the fourth quarter of 2002, the multifamily segment accounted for $3 billion of all real estate transactions--which totaled about $14 billion altogether. It was surpassed only by the office sector.
Bjorn Hanson, global industry leader for PricewaterhouseCoopers, agreed that the hotel industry will also "take until the end of 2004 to get back to 2000 levels." PwC is predicting that hotel occupancy in '03 will round out at 59.1%, down slightly from 59.2% in 2002. But 2004 is expected to shoot up to 61.1%, edging closer to the record high occupancy rate of 63.4% experienced in 2000.
While things are looking up, Hanson was quick to note that only in five of the last 75 years has occupancy been lower than is projected for this year. And only in eight years out of the past 36 have room starts been as low as they are estimated for 2003.
Steve Coyle of Citigroup Alternative Investments agreed that development is lagging. In fact, Coyle predicts that for the office sector, "2004 construction completions will be at 1997 levels." This, however, is not nearly as gloomy as earlier predictions, which called for new construction to hit the all-time low levels experienced in the early '90s, he said.
Coyle also pointed out that for the office segment, "We won't see a recovery until we will job growth, not GDP growth. While GDP growth is great, we need companies to hire more people to occupy space."
For the first quarter of this year, he estimates that vacancies averaged 16.7%. "Vacancies are still increasing, but slower and they still remain below peak levels." As for rents, he warns that many of today's leases were signed in 1998-2000, and when those deals roll in the coming months, landlords will be facing a tough situation because "rents are currently below 1998 levels. They're off more than 20% from their peak in 2000."
In the industrial market, Coyle offered similar predictions to his office forecasts. He anticipates vacancies in Q4 2004 will hit a peak of 12%, than improve gradually. Industrial construction completions, he stated, are also tied to job growth and, like the office sector, development is currently at 1997 levels.
As for retail, Doug Casey of Clarion Partners, said shopping center sales are actually growing by 4.9% per year this decade. And sales growth will generate more than 100 million sf of new centers annually.
Casey also isolated the hot retail markets to keep an eye on, pointing out that baby boomers are a driving force in future retail demand. "More than 40% of the nation's population lives in three states: California, Florida and Texas," he explained, adding that retail development is following suit in these areas.
He added that in urban locations, cities along the edges/coasts of the country are experiencing the greatest population gains. Phoenix, Atlanta and Dallas are seeing the greatest influx of people, followed by Houston, Washington, DC and Las Vegas.
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