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Linneman: Joblessness May Not Be What It Seems

NEW YORK CITY-A different take on the jobless recovery was laid out last night as NAI unveiled its 2004 Global Market Report.

By John Salustri | Updated on January 16, 2004

NEW YORK CITY-”All recoveries are jobless.” With that one proclamation, Dr. Peter Linneman, principal of Philadelphia-based Linneman Associates and professor of real estate at Wharton School, swept away the collective moaning over the jobless recovery. In a lively session during the presentation of NAI’S 2004 Global Market Report last night, Linneman explained that joblessness is part of the status quo for all fledgling upturns: “No one hires until they feel the stress on their infrastructure.”

Terming the recently ended economic slump “one of the nicest downturns ever,” Linneman said that unemployment figures are skewed based on whom you survey–individuals or businesses. Outsourcing firms may claim fewer employers, but those outsourced workers are still getting their paychecks. He noted that both types of surveys tracked roughly two million job losses from December of 2000 through April of 2002. But for three months after that, while payroll numbers continued to fall, the number of employed household members actually started to rise.

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