"2003 ended very strong," MBA president and CEO Jonathan L. Kempner said during yesterday's press briefing. "Fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product growth will be in excess of 5% in real terms, and mortgage origination value hit an all-time high in 2003. It will decline in 2004, but it will still be the fourth or fifth largest year on record." Calculated GDP growth for 2004 is expected to be 4.7%, and 4.1% in 2005 and 2006. Mortgage originations will see a decrease but will still reach a respectable $2 trillion in 2004, with only small declines in 2005 and 2006. "We see housing as being strong over the next three years in a strong economy," Kempner added.

As for MBA's goals for the year, the organization plans to put its efforts into relevant topics outlined in its 2004 Advocacy Agenda. Among other issues, MBA senior vice president of government affairs Kurt Pfotenhauer said MBA is "committed to focusing congressional attention on predatory lending practices." The agenda also includes advocating legislation that would reform oversight of government-sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, backing the fortification of the Federal Housing Association, and supporting mortgage simplification and the review of the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act, which is currently on the table.

The MBA is keeping a focus on the ramifications of the events of Sept. 11, 2001 on the real estate industry. "Commercial lenders will be greatly affected by the availability of terrorism insurance if Congress lets the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002 expire in 2005," Pfotenhauer noted. "After Sept. 11, we were descended upon, as a nation, with something we had never encountered, and markets responded by shutting down. The terrorist threat has not gone away, and insurance is not uniformly available in all areas. We need terrorism insurance for the markets to function normally."